A Tale of Three Schools: Insights on Autocorrelations of Short Horizon Stock Returns

This article reexamines the autocorrelation patterns of short-horizon stock returns. We document empirical results which imply that these autocorrelations have been overstated in the existing literature. Based on several new insights, we provide support for a market efficiency-based explanation of the evidence. Our analysis suggests that institutional factors are the most likely source of the autocorrelation patterns. Article published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Financial Studies in its journal, The Review of Financial Studies.

[1]  A. Lo,et al.  MAXIMIZING PREDICTABILITY IN THE STOCK AND BOND MARKETS , 1995, Macroeconomic Dynamics.

[2]  Timothy S. Mech Portfolio return autocorrelation , 1993 .

[3]  Sam Thomas The behavior of prices in the Value Line stock index futures market under both versions of the spot index , 1993 .

[4]  Hendrik Bessembinder,et al.  Return Autocorrelations around Nontrading Days , 1993 .

[5]  Sheridan Titman,et al.  Overreaction, Delayed Reaction, and Contrarian Profits , 1995 .

[6]  B. LeBaron,et al.  Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns , 1992 .

[7]  Gautam Kaul,et al.  Asymmetric Predictability of Conditional Variances , 1991 .

[8]  M. Nimalendran,et al.  Components of short-horizon individual security returns , 1991 .

[9]  Joel Hasbrouck The Summary Informativeness of Stock Trades: An Econometric Analysis , 1991 .

[10]  Matthew Richardson,et al.  Tests of financial models in the presence of overlapping observations , 1991 .

[11]  Thomas H. Mcinish,et al.  Autocorrelation of daily index returns: intraday-to-intraday versus close-to-close intervals , 1991 .

[12]  Narasimhan Jegadeesh,et al.  Evidence of Predictable Behavior of Security Returns , 1990 .

[13]  Donald B. Keim Trading patterns, bid-ask spreads, and estimated security returns: The case of common stocks at calendar turning points , 1989 .

[14]  A. Lo,et al.  An Econometric Analysis of Nonsynchronous Trading , 1989 .

[15]  A. Lo,et al.  When are Contrarian Profits Due to Stock Market Overreaction? , 1989 .

[16]  Gautam Kaul,et al.  Mean Reversion in Short-Horizon Expected Returns , 1989 .

[17]  Anat R. Admati,et al.  Divide and Conquer: A Theory of Intraday and Day-of-the-Week Mean Effects , 1989 .

[18]  L. Harris The October 1987 S&P 500 Stock‐Futures Basis , 1989 .

[19]  Eva Liljeblom,et al.  Market Serial Correlation on a Small Security Market: A Note , 1988 .

[20]  A. Mackinlay,et al.  Index-Futures Arbitrage and the Behavior of Stock Index Futures Prices , 1988 .

[21]  Gautam Kaul,et al.  Time-Variation in Expected Returns , 1988 .

[22]  Anat R. Admati,et al.  A Theory of Intraday Patterns: Volume and Price Variability , 1988 .

[23]  Y. Amihud,et al.  Trading Mechanisms and Stock Returns: An Empirical Investigation , 1987 .

[24]  A. Lo,et al.  Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test , 1987 .

[25]  Donald B. Keim,et al.  Predicting returns in the stock and bond markets , 1986 .

[26]  W. Newey,et al.  A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelationconsistent Covariance Matrix , 1986 .

[27]  Philip R. Perry Portfolio Serial Correlation and Nonsynchronous Trading , 1985, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis.

[28]  Michael D. Atchison,et al.  NONSYNCHRONOUS SECURITY TRADING AND MARKET INDEX AUTOCORRELATION , 1985 .

[29]  W. Ferson,et al.  Testing asset pricing models with changing expectations and an unobservable market portfolio , 1985 .

[30]  Donald B. Keim,et al.  A Further Investigation of the Weekend Effect in Stock Returns , 1984 .

[31]  M. Blume,et al.  BIASES IN COMPUTED RETURNS An Application to the Size Effect , 1983 .

[32]  L. Hansen,et al.  Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis , 1980, Journal of Political Economy.

[33]  Gabriel Hawawini,et al.  Intertemporal Cross-Dependence in Securities Daily Returns and the Short-Run Intervaling Effect on Systematic Risk , 1980, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis.

[34]  Myron S. Scholes,et al.  Estimating betas from nonsynchronous data , 1977 .

[35]  Lawrence Fisher,et al.  Some New Stock-Market Indexes , 1966 .

[36]  E. Fama The Behavior of Stock-Market Prices , 1965 .