Forecasting phenology: from species variability to community patterns.

Shifts in species' phenology in response to climate change have wide-ranging consequences for ecological systems. However, significant variability in species' responses, together with limited data, frustrates efforts to forecast the consequences of ongoing phenological changes. Herein, we use a case study of three North American plant communities to explore the implications of variability across levels of organisation (within and among species, and among communities) for forecasting responses to climate change. We show how despite significant variation among species in sensitivities to climate, comparable patterns emerge at the community level once regional climate drivers are accounted for. However, communities differ with respect to projected patterns of divergence and overlap among their species' phenological distributions in response to climate change. These analyses and a review of hypotheses suggest how explicit consideration of spatial scale and levels of biological organisation may help to understand and forecast phenological responses to climate change.

[1]  Jane Memmott,et al.  Global warming and the disruption of plant-pollinator interactions. , 2007, Ecology letters.

[2]  C. Dean,et al.  Arabidopsis, the Rosetta stone of flowering time? , 2002, Science.

[3]  O. Gordo,et al.  Long‐term temporal changes of plant phenology in the Western Mediterranean , 2009 .

[4]  C. Rosenzweig,et al.  Attributing physical and biological impacts to anthropogenic climate change , 2008, Nature.

[5]  Elizabeth R. Ellwood,et al.  Forecasting phenology under global warming , 2010, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[6]  Christopher B. Field,et al.  Diverse responses of phenology to global changes in a grassland ecosystem , 2006, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[7]  M. Crimmins,et al.  Complex responses to climate drivers in onset of spring flowering across a semi‐arid elevation gradient , 2010 .

[8]  R. Primack,et al.  How well do first flowering dates measure plant responses to climate change? The effects of population size and sampling frequency , 2008 .

[9]  A. Miller‐Rushing,et al.  Toward a synthetic understanding of the role of phenology in ecology and evolution , 2010, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[10]  Mark D. Schwartz,et al.  Continental‐scale phenology: warming and chilling , 2010 .

[11]  J. Schaber,et al.  Responses of spring phenology to climate change , 2004 .

[12]  M. Crimmins,et al.  Relationships between alpha diversity of plant species in bloom and climatic variables across an elevation gradient , 2008, International journal of biometeorology.

[13]  P. Ciais,et al.  Influence of spring and autumn phenological transitions on forest ecosystem productivity , 2010, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[14]  M. Crimmins,et al.  Flowering range changes across an elevation gradient in response to warming summer temperatures , 2009 .

[15]  D. Inouye,et al.  Effects of climate change on phenology, frost damage, and floral abundance of montane wildflowers. , 2008, Ecology.

[16]  Ørjan Totland,et al.  How does climate warming affect plant-pollinator interactions? , 2009, Ecology letters.

[17]  Annette Menzel,et al.  Growing season extended in Europe , 1999, Nature.

[18]  Robert D Holt,et al.  A framework for community interactions under climate change. , 2010, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[19]  C. Parmesan.  Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change , 2006 .

[20]  Rik Leemans,et al.  Faculty Opinions recommendation of European phenological response to climate change matches the warming pattern. , 2006 .

[21]  Toke Thomas Høye,et al.  The effects of phenological mismatches on demography , 2010, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[22]  A. Fitter,et al.  Rapid Changes in Flowering Time in British Plants , 2002, Science.

[23]  R. Amasino.  Seasonal and developmental timing of flowering. , 2010, The Plant journal : for cell and molecular biology.

[24]  Ignasi Bartomeus,et al.  Climate-associated phenological advances in bee pollinators and bee-pollinated plants , 2011, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[25]  A. Miller‐Rushing,et al.  Variation in the impact of climate change on flowering phenology and abundance: An examination of two pairs of closely related wildflower species. , 2009, American journal of botany.

[26]  A. Miller‐Rushing,et al.  Emergence of a mid‐season period of low floral resources in a montane meadow ecosystem associated with climate change , 2011 .

[27]  Stefano Allesina,et al.  Food web models: a plea for groups. , 2009, Ecology letters.

[28]  Michael D. Mastrandrea,et al.  Human-modified temperatures induce species changes: Joint attribution , 2005 .

[29]  I. Noy-Meir,et al.  Desert Ecosystems: Environment and Producers , 1973 .

[30]  Richard B Primack,et al.  Global warming and flowering times in Thoreau's Concord: a community perspective. , 2008, Ecology.

[31]  T. Jonathan Davies,et al.  Predicting phenology by integrating ecology, evolution and climate science , 2011 .

[32]  Amedeo Caflisch,et al.  The robustness of pollination networks to the loss of species and interactions: a quantitative approach incorporating pollinator behaviour. , 2010, Ecology letters.

[33]  H. Mooney,et al.  Shifting plant phenology in response to global change. , 2007, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[34]  T. Sparks,et al.  The effect of spring temperature on the appearance dates of British butterflies 1883–1993 , 1997 .

[35]  S. Carpenter,et al.  Ecological forecasts: an emerging imperative. , 2001, Science.

[36]  Annette Menzel,et al.  Altered geographic and temporal variability in phenology in response to climate change , 2006 .

[37]  John A. Silander,et al.  Spatial and interspecific variability in phenological responses to warming temperatures , 2009 .

[38]  Ian P. Woiwod,et al.  Effects of temperature on aphid phenology , 1995 .