Effect of rainfall variability on streamflow simulation

Three recording rain gages in a 9.7-square-mile basin in southern California were used with a deterministic rainfall-runoff model to simulate flood hydrographs and peaks and to assess the effects of data errors on simulation results. Bias in the estimation of effective basin rainfall seemed to result in curve fitting parameter adjustments which compensated for the bias. The combined effects for a storm of both difference in the time distribution of rainfall at different points and spatial variability of rainfall volume over the basin limit the possible accuracy of simulation results. The use of a single rain gage on a basin with this hydrology can at best be expected to predict peak discharge with a standard error of estimate on the order of 20%.