Changes in transitions from private renting to homeownership in the context of rapidly rising house prices

Abstract A period associated with the emergence of the current housing crisis in Britain provides a testbed in which to investigate household tenure choice in the context of rapidly rising house prices. We compile a bespoke data-set combining data from the British Household Panel Survey and sources of local and national housing and mortgage market information covering the period 1994–2008. During this period, we observe three key changes in behaviour associated with the emergence of the housing crisis: (i) increasing acceptance of long-term renting; (ii) the emergence of local house prices as a factor inhibiting entry to homeownership at district level; and (iii) the cessation of moving to a lower cost district as a strategy to enter homeownership. We interpret these findings as some private tenants reducing their aspiration for homeownership, and those seeking entry to homeownership shifting strategy from moving to cheaper districts in favour of staying put and saving.

[1]  R. Coulter.  Social Disparities in Private Renting Amongst Young Families in England and Wales, 2001-2011 , 2017 .

[2]  J. Yates,et al.  A private rental sector paradox: unpacking the effects of urban restructuring on housing market dynamics , 2017 .

[3]  I. Shuttleworth,et al.  Are People Changing Address Less? An Analysis of Migration within England and Wales, 1971–2011, by Distance of Move , 2017 .

[4]  Kimberly D. McKee,et al.  ‘Generation rent’ and the ability to ‘settle down’: economic and geographical variation in young people’s housing transitions , 2017 .

[5]  Kimberly D. McKee,et al.  Housing policy in the UK: the importance of spatial nuance , 2017 .

[6]  C. Lennartz,et al.  Younger Adults and Homeownership in Europe Through the Global Financial Crisis , 2016 .

[7]  Lord Bourne,et al.  Department for Communities and Local Government: Troubled families programme: transforming the lives of thousands of families , 2016 .

[8]  P. Kemp.  Private Renting After the Global Financial Crisis , 2015 .

[9]  D. Maclennan,et al.  Regional house price cycles in the UK, 1978-2012: a Markov switching VAR , 2014 .

[10]  Hazel Easthope.  Making a Rental Property Home , 2014 .

[11]  Jiří Špalek,et al.  Housing Tenure Choice and Housing Expenditures in the Czech Republic , 2013 .

[12]  J. Raya,et al.  Which Are the Real Determinants of Tenure? A Comparative Analysis of Different Models of the Tenure Choice of a House , 2012 .

[13]  H. Beider.  Housing Policy and Practice , 2012 .

[14]  D. Houston,et al.  The Changing Geography of Privately Rented Housing in England and Wales , 2012 .

[15]  David L. Brown,et al.  Migration and urban-rural population redistribution in the UK and US , 2012 .

[16]  Jingkui Zhou.  Uncertainty and housing tenure choice by household types: Evidence from China , 2011 .

[17]  P. Kemp,et al.  Transforming Private Landlords: Housing, Markets and Public Policy , 2010 .

[18]  Mark P. Taylor,et al.  Residential mobility, quality of neighbourhood and life course events , 2010 .

[19]  Sc Noah Uhrig,et al.  The nature and causes of attrition in the British Household Panel Study , 2008 .

[20]  M. Seko,et al.  Japanese Housing Tenure Choice and Welfare Implications after the Revision of the Tenant Protection Law , 2007 .

[21]  Diana Mok.  The Life Stages and Housing Decisions of Young Households: An Insider Perspective , 2005 .

[22]  Peter R H Wood,et al.  Unequal city: London in the global arena , 2004 .

[23]  T. Hatton,et al.  Immigration and Inter-Regional Mobility in the UK, 1982-2000 , 2003 .

[24]  Seong Woo Lee,et al.  Local housing-market effects on tenure choice , 2003 .

[25]  D. Haurin,et al.  Housing choices and uncertainty: the impact of stochastic events , 2002 .

[26]  Rowland Atkinson,et al.  The hidden costs of gentrification: Displacement in central London , 2000 .

[27]  Gary D. Painter.  Tenure Choice with Sample Selection: Differences among Alternative Samples , 2000 .

[28]  J. Muellbauer,et al.  Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market , 1997 .

[29]  W. Clark,et al.  Tenure choice in the German housing market: a competing risks model , 1997 .

[30]  J. Ermisch,et al.  Analysis of the Dynamics of Housing Tenure Choice in Britain , 1997 .

[31]  L. D. Jones.  Testing the Central Prediction of Housing Tenure Transition Models , 1995 .

[32]  Jim Kemeny,et al.  From Public Housing to the Social Market: Rental Policy Strategies in Comparative Perspective , 1994 .

[33]  A. Murie,et al.  Housing Policy and Practice , 1982 .

[34]  W. Clark.  Residential Mobility and the Housing Market , 2012 .

[35]  D. Plane,et al.  Housing markets, the life course, and migration up and down the urban hierarchy , 2012 .

[36]  G. Galster.  Neighborhoods and their role in creating and changing housing , 2012 .

[37]  D. Miles.  The UK Mortgage Market: Taking a Longer-Term View , 2004 .

[38]  Susan I. Ranney.  The Future Price of Houses, Mortgage Market Conditions, and the Returns to Homeownership , 1981 .