Predicting the Diffusion of Improved Pastures in Uruguay

Research suggests the logistic curve is the characteristic diffusion path for new technologies. Econometric analysis of fertilized grass-legume pastures in Uruguay indicated that their diffusion during the first years following introduction also followed a logistic path. Some departure from a simple logistic shape was explained by including beef and fertilizer prices within the diffusion framework. Both the rate and limit of diffusion were positively related to changes in the technology's profitability, but the estimated price elasticity of each was low. Extrapolation predicted that a ceiling equal to 12% of Uruguayan pasture area would be reached in 1980.