GIS-Based Probabilistic Mapping of Landslide Hazard Using a Three-Dimensional Deterministic Model

Based on a new Geographic Information Systems (GIS) grid-basedthree-dimensional (3-D) deterministic model and taking the slopeunit as the mapping unit, this study maps landslide hazard usingthe 3-D safety factor index and failure probability. Assuming theinitial slip to be the lower part of an ellipsoid, the 3-D critical slipsurface in the 3-D slope stability analysis is located by minimizingthe 3-D safety factor using the Monte Carlo random simulation.The failure probability of the landslide is calculated using anapproximate method in which the distributions of c, Φ andthe 3-D safety factor are assumed to be in normal distribution.The method has been applied to a case study on three-dimensionallyand probabilistically mapping landslide hazard.

[1]  D. Varnes.  Landslide hazard zonation: A review of principles and practice , 1984 .

[2]  C. Westen,et al.  An approach towards deterministic landslide hazard analysis in GIS. A case study from Manizales (Colombia) , 1996 .

[3]  L. Lam,et al.  A general limit equilibrium model for three-dimensional slope stability analysis: ~e~l~' , 1993 .

[4]  H. Hovland,et al.  THREE-DIMENSIONAL SLOPE STABILITY ANALYSIS METHOD , 1977 .

[5]  O. Hungr.  An extension of Bishop's simplified method of slope stability analysis to three dimensions , 1987 .

[6]  Robin Chowdhury,et al.  Uncertainties in rainfall-induced landslide hazard , 2002, Quarterly Journal of Engineering Geology and Hydrogeology.

[7]  P. Reichenbach,et al.  GIS techniques and statistical models in evaluating landslide hazard , 1991 .

[8]  Fausto Guzzetti,et al.  Use of GIS Technology in the Prediction and Monitoring of Landslide Hazard , 1999 .

[9]  Antonio Gens,et al.  Three-dimensional analysis of slides in cohesive soils , 1988 .

[10]  G. Mesri,et al.  The coefficient of earth pressure at rest: Reply , 1994 .

[11]  R. H. Chen,et al.  THREE-DIMENSIONAL LIMIT EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS OF SLOPES , 1983 .

[12]  P. Aleotti,et al.  Landslide hazard assessment: summary review and new perspectives , 1999 .

[13]  R. Anbalagan,et al.  Landslide hazard evaluation and zonation mapping in mountainous terrain , 1992 .

[14]  N. Janbu,et al.  SLOPE STABILITY COMPUTATIONS , 1973 .

[15]  D. Cruden,et al.  Probabilistic slope stability analysis for practice , 2002 .

[16]  A. C. Seijmonsbergen,et al.  Comparing Landslide Hazard Maps , 1999 .

[17]  A. P. J. de Roo,et al.  Modelling surface runoff and soil erosion in catchments using geographical information systems : validity and applicability of the 'ANSWERS' model in two catchments in the loess area of South Limburg (The Netherlands) and one in Devon (UK) , 1993 .

[18]  D. Maidment.  Arc hydro : GIS for water resources , 2002 .

[19]  C. F. Lee,et al.  Terrain-based mapping of landslide susceptibility using a geographical information system: a case study , 2001 .

[20]  The San Mateo County GIS project for predicting the consequences of hazardous geologic processes , 1995 .

[21]  Y. Mitani,et al.  Spatial probabilistic modeling of slope failure using an integrated GIS Monte Carlo simulation approach , 2003 .

[22]  A. Bishop.  The use of the Slip Circle in the Stability Analysis of Slopes , 1955 .

[23]  S. Sarma.  STABILITY ANALYSIS OF EMBANKMENTS AND SLOPES , 1973 .

[24]  Alberto Carrara,et al.  Multivariate models for landslide hazard evaluation , 1983 .

[25]  Oldrich Hungr,et al.  A general limit equilibrium model for three-dimensional slope stability analysis: Discussion , 1994 .

[26]  Ching-Chuan Huang,et al.  Generalized Three-Dimensional Slope-Stability Analysis , 1992 .

[27]  M. Terlien,et al.  Prediction of the occurrence of slope instability phenomenal through GIS-based hazard zonation , 1997 .

[28]  G. Zhou.  Spatial probabilistic modeling of slope failure by using GIS and Monte Cairo method , 2003 .