Assessment of human reliability based on evaluation of plant experience: requirements and implementation

A major problem in assessment of human failures in probabilistic safety assessment is the lack of empirical data needed for human reliability analysis (HRA). This problem is aggravated by the fact that different HRA methods use different parameters for the assessment and that HRA is currently enforced to provide data and methods for assessment of human reliability in new technical environments such as computerized control rooms, in accident management situations, or in low-power and shut down situations. Plant experience is one source to deal with this problem. In this paper, a method is presented that describes how plant experience about human failures and human performance may be used to support the process of analyzing and assessing human reliability. Based on considerations of requirements of HRA, a method is presented first which is able to describe and analyze human interactions that were observed within events. Implementation of the approach as a database application is outlined. Second, the main results of the application of the method to 165 boiling water reactor events are presented. Observed influencing factors on human performance are discussed; estimates for probabilities are calculated and compared with the data tables of the THERP handbook. An outline is given for using the presented method for the analysis of cognitive errors or organizational aspects.

[1]  A. D. Swain.  Accident Sequence Evaluation Program: Human reliability analysis procedure , 1987 .

[2]  Sandra H. Rouse,et al.  Analysis and classification of human error , 1983, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics.

[3]  Jack A. Adams,et al.  Issues in Human Reliability , 1982 .

[4]  O. Sträter,et al.  Human-centered modeling in human reliability analysis: some trends based on case studies , 1997 .

[5]  Timothy D. Lee,et al.  Motor Control and Learning: A Behavioral Emphasis , 1982 .

[6]  A. J. Spurgin,et al.  Advances in human reliability analysis methodology. Part I: frameworks, models and data , 1994 .

[7]  Harold S. Blackman,et al.  INTENT: a method for estimating human error probabilities for decisionbased errors , 1992 .

[8]  A. D. Swain,et al.  Handbook of human-reliability analysis with emphasis on nuclear power plant applications. Final report , 1983 .

[9]  Erik Hollnagel,et al.  Cognitive reliability and error analysis method : CREAM , 1998 .

[10]  Georg Rasch,et al.  Probabilistic Models for Some Intelligence and Attainment Tests , 1981, The SAGE Encyclopedia of Research Design.

[11]  Winfried Hacker,et al.  Arbeitspsychologie : psychische Regulation von Arbeitstätigkeiten , 1986 .

[12]  Jens Rasmussen,et al.  Information Processing and Human-Machine Interaction , 1986 .

[13]  O. Sträter.  Investigations on the Influence of Situational Conditions on Human Reliability in Technical Systems , 1997 .

[14]  D. Norman.  Categorization of action slips. , 1981 .

[15]  O. Sträter.  Assessment Of Cognitive Errors And Organizational Aspects Based On Evaluation Of Plant Experience , 1996 .

[16]  Judea Pearl,et al.  Probabilistic reasoning in intelligent systems - networks of plausible inference , 1991, Morgan Kaufmann series in representation and reasoning.

[17]  O. Sträter.  A Method for Human Reliability Data Collection and Assessment , 1996 .

[18]  Oliver Sträter,et al.  Evaluation of New Developments in Cognitive Error Modeling and Quantification: Time Reliability Correlation , 1996 .

[19]  Joseph R. Fragola,et al.  Human Reliability Analysis: A Systems Engineering Approach with Nuclear Power Plant Applications , 1988 .

[20]  Anna Hart,et al.  Knowledge acquisition for expert systems , 1988 .

[21]  Allen Newell,et al.  The psychology of human-computer interaction , 1983 .