Prognosticating Offending in Early Adulthood: How Early Can We Predict?

[1]  Thomas A. Loughran,et al.  Paternoster on Human Agency and Crime: a Rejoinder to Critics on His Behalf , 2021, Journal of Developmental and Life-Course Criminology.

[2]  J. Ludwig,et al.  Fragile Algorithms and Fallible Decision-Makers: Lessons from the Justice System , 2021, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[3]  Shawn D. Bushway “Nothing Is More Opaque than Absolute Transparency”: The Use of Prior History to Guide Sentencing , 2020 .

[4]  Gael Varoquaux,et al.  Establishment of Best Practices for Evidence for Prediction: A Review. , 2019, JAMA psychiatry.

[5]  Thomas A. Loughran,et al.  How Early Is Too Early? Identification of Elevated, Persistent Problem Behavior in Childhood , 2019, Prevention Science.

[6]  Jennifer L. Doleac,et al.  Algorithmic Risk Assessment in the Hands of Humans , 2019, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[7]  C. Callaway,et al.  A novel methodological framework for multimodality, trajectory model-based prognostication. , 2019, Resuscitation.

[8]  J. McGloin,et al.  Revisiting juvenile waiver: Integrating the incapacitation experience* , 2018 .

[9]  Thomas A. Loughran,et al.  On the Measurement and Identification of Turning Points in Criminology , 2018 .

[10]  M. Kearns,et al.  Fairness in Criminal Justice Risk Assessments: The State of the Art , 2017, Sociological Methods & Research.

[11]  R. Paternoster Happenings, Acts, and Actions: Articulating the Meaning and Implications of Human Agency for Criminology , 2017 .

[12]  Thomas A. Loughran,et al.  JUVENILE WAIVER AS A MECHANISM OF SOCIAL STRATIFICATION: A FOCUS ON HUMAN CAPITAL† , 2017 .

[13]  Richard A. Berk,et al.  An impact assessment of machine learning risk forecasts on parole board decisions and recidivism , 2017, Journal of Experimental Criminology.

[14]  Avi Feller,et al.  Algorithmic Decision Making and the Cost of Fairness , 2017, KDD.

[15]  R. Berk,et al.  Forecasting Domestic Violence: A Machine Learning Approach to Help Inform Arraignment Decisions , 2016 .

[16]  Raj Chetty,et al.  The Effects of Exposure to Better Neighborhoods on Children: New Evidence from the Moving to Opportunity Experiment , 2015, The American economic review.

[17]  Yvonne Neudorf,et al.  A General Theory Of Crime , 2016 .

[18]  D. Farrington,et al.  Constancy and Change in the Prevalence and Frequency of Offending When Based on Longitudinal Self-reports or Official Records: Comparisons by Gender, Race, and Crime Type , 2015, Journal of developmental and life-course criminology.

[19]  David Kirk,et al.  LABELING EFFECTS OF FIRST JUVENILE ARRESTS: SECONDARY DEVIANCE AND SECONDARY SANCTIONING , 2014 .

[20]  T. Goddard The Indeterminacy of the Risk Factor Prevention Paradigm: A Case Study of Community Partnerships Implementing Youth and Gang Violence Prevention Policy , 2014 .

[21]  Dylan B. Jackson,et al.  The Conditional Impact of Official Labeling on Subsequent Delinquency , 2013 .

[22]  D. Farrington,et al.  Direct protective and buffering protective factors in the development of youth violence. , 2012, American journal of preventive medicine.

[23]  R. Loeber,et al.  Understanding desisting and persisting forms of delinquency: the unique contributions of disruptive behavior disorders and interpersonal callousness. , 2012, Journal of child psychology and psychiatry, and allied disciplines.

[24]  D. Farrington,et al.  Risk and Protective Factors for Offending , 2012 .

[25]  Edward J. Latessa Why the risk and needs principles are relevant to correctional programs (even to employment programs) , 2011 .

[26]  F. Verhulst,et al.  Developmental trajectories of child to adolescent externalizing behavior and adult DSM-IV disorder: results of a 24-year longitudinal study , 2010, Social Psychiatry and Psychiatric Epidemiology.

[27]  Uberto Gatti,et al.  Iatrogenic effect of juvenile justice. , 2009, Journal of child psychology and psychiatry, and allied disciplines.

[28]  P. O'mahony The Risk Factors Prevention Paradigm and the Causes of Youth Crime: A Deceptively Useful Analysis? , 2009 .

[29]  Laurence Steinberg,et al.  Adolescent development and juvenile justice. , 2009, Annual review of clinical psychology.

[30]  K. Haines,et al.  The Rhetoric and Reality of the 'Risk Factor Prevention Paradigm' Approach to Preventing and Reducing Youth Offending , 2008 .

[31]  Shawn D. Bushway,et al.  Sentencing Using Statistical Treatment Rules: What We Don’t Know Can Hurt Us , 2007 .

[32]  Stephen Case Questioning the `Evidence' of Risk that Underpins Evidence-led Youth Justice Interventions , 2007 .

[33]  Daniel S. Nagin,et al.  Advances in Group-Based Trajectory Modeling and an SAS Procedure for Estimating Them , 2007 .

[34]  Greg Pogarsky Deterrence and Individual Differences Among Convicted Offenders , 2007 .

[35]  D. Nagin,et al.  Finite Sample Effects in Group-Based Trajectory Models , 2006 .

[36]  T. P. Thornberry,et al.  Explaining Multiple Patterns of Offending across the Life Course and across Generations , 2005 .

[37]  Robert J. Sampson,et al.  A Life-Course View of the Development of Crime , 2005 .

[38]  James C. Howell,et al.  Moving Risk Factors into Developmental Theories of Gang Membership , 2005 .

[39]  L. R. Huesmann,et al.  Proximal Peer-Level Effects of a Small-Group Selected Prevention on Aggression in Elementary School Children: An Investigation of the Peer Contagion Hypothesis , 2005, Journal of abnormal child psychology.

[40]  M. Pepe,et al.  Limitations of the odds ratio in gauging the performance of a diagnostic, prognostic, or screening marker. , 2004, American journal of epidemiology.

[41]  M. Krohn,et al.  LABELING, LIFE CHANCES, AND ADULT CRIME: THE DIRECT AND INDIRECT EFFECTS OF OFFICIAL INTERVENTION IN ADOLESCENCE ON CRIME IN EARLY ADULTHOOD* , 2003 .

[42]  Eric R. Ziegel,et al.  The Elements of Statistical Learning , 2003, Technometrics.

[43]  David P. Farrington,et al.  DEVELOPMENTAL AND LIFE-COURSE CRIMINOLOGY: KEY THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL ISSUES-THE 2002 SUTHERLAND AWARD ADDRESS* , 2003 .

[44]  T. Moffitt,et al.  Developmental trajectories of childhood disruptive behaviors and adolescent delinquency: a six-site, cross-national study. , 2003, Developmental psychology.

[45]  Bruce Western,et al.  The Impact of Incarceration on Wage Mobility and Inequality , 2002, American Sociological Review.

[46]  D. Nagin,et al.  Developmental trajectories of physical aggression from school entry to late adolescence. , 2001, Journal of child psychology and psychiatry, and allied disciplines.

[47]  S. Bushway,et al.  AN EMPIRICAL FRAMEWORK FOR STUDYING DESISTANCE AS A PROCESS , 2001 .

[48]  G. Elder,et al.  Quality of Parenting as Mediator of the Effect of Childhood Defiance on Adolescent Friendship Choices and Delinquency: A Growth Curve Analysis , 2001 .

[49]  DavidP. Farrington EXPLAINING AND PREVENTING CRIME: THE GLOBALIZATION OF KNOWLEDGE—THE AMERICAN SOCIETY OF CRIMINOLOGY 1999 PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS* , 2000 .

[50]  N. Wald,et al.  When can a risk factor be used as a worthwhile screening test? , 1999, BMJ.

[51]  Kathryn Roeder,et al.  Modeling Uncertainty in Latent Class Membership: A Case Study in Criminology , 1999 .

[52]  D. Nagin,et al.  Trajectories of boys' physical aggression, opposition, and hyperactivity on the path to physically violent and nonviolent juvenile delinquency. , 1999, Child development.

[53]  Alan J. Lizotte,et al.  Measurement in the Study of Class and Delinquency: Integrating Theory and Research , 1994 .

[54]  Robert J. Sampson,et al.  TURNING POINTS IN THE LIFE COURSE: WHY CHANGE MATTERS TO THE STUDY OF CRIME* , 1993 .

[55]  Daniel S. Nagin,et al.  ON THE RELATIONSHIP OF PAST TO FUTURE PARTICIPATION IN DELINQUENCY , 1991 .

[56]  David Huizinga,et al.  Are there multiple paths to delinquency , 1991 .

[57]  R. Paternoster,et al.  The Labeling perspective and delinquency: An elaboration of the theory and an assessment of the evidence , 1989 .

[58]  A. Blumstein,et al.  A PROSPECTIVE TEST OF A CRIMINAL CAREER MODEL , 1989 .

[59]  D P Farrington,et al.  Early Predictors of Adolescent Aggression and Adult Violence , 1989, Violence and Victims.

[60]  M. Rutter Psychosocial resilience and protective mechanisms. , 1987, The American journal of orthopsychiatry.

[61]  A. Blumstein,et al.  PROBABILISTIC MODELS OF YOUTHFUL CRIMINAL CAREERS , 1987 .

[62]  P. Meehl Theory-Testing in Psychology and Physics: A Methodological Paradox , 1967, Philosophy of Science.