Trends of streamflow in the Tarim River Basin during the past 50 years: Human impact or climate change?

Summary The characteristics of hydro-climatic changes in the Tarim River Basin were analysed based on data collected at 39 weather stations and 29hydrological stations for the period 1961–2008 and 1952–2008, respectively. A non-parametric trend test on basin scale for annual data shows an increasing trend of precipitation, relative humidity, vapour pressure, and the aridity index since 1986. Surface temperature started increasing in 1996. A decreasing trend of sunshine started in 1990. The potential evapotranspiration (ET) is calculated by the Penman–Monteith equation, and points out decreasing trend of potential evapotranspiration since 1985. This negative trend can also be detected for wind speed in both the same time scale and spatial extent. The stations with significant increasing trends in annual streamflow are mainly distributed at the southern slope of Tianshan Mountain, which can only be explained by climatic changes. The detected negative runoff trend of the main stream of the Tarim River can be explained by anthropogenic activities (such as irrigation and domestic water use) and climatic changes. A quantitative assessment reveals that local human activities since the 1970s led to a decrease of the water volume diverted into the main stream of the Tarim River Basin, which has been aggravated in the 2000s.

[1]  Axel Thomas,et al.  Spatial and temporal characteristics of potential evapotranspiration trends over China , 2000 .

[2]  S. Tao,et al.  Changes in wind speed over China during 1956–2004 , 2009 .

[3]  E. Kahya,et al.  Trend analysis of streamflow in Turkey , 2004 .

[4]  L. S. Pereira,et al.  Crop evapotranspiration : guidelines for computing crop water requirements , 1998 .

[5]  Tong Jiang,et al.  Ecohydrological responses on water diversion in the lower reaches of the Tarim River, China , 2008 .

[6]  E. Kang,et al.  Recent and Future Climate Change in Northwest China , 2007 .

[7]  Guobin Fu,et al.  Trends of major hydroclimatic variables in the Tarim River basin during the past 50 years , 2010 .

[8]  T. Huntington.  Evidence for intensification of the global water cycle: Review and synthesis , 2006 .

[9]  Mahmoud M. Smadi,et al.  A Sudden Change In Rainfall Characteristics In Amman, Jordan During The Mid 1950s , 2006 .

[10]  Laurence C. Smith,et al.  Climatic and anthropogenic factors affecting river discharge to the global ocean, 1951–2000 , 2008 .

[11]  R. Washington,et al.  Transport trajectories of dust originating from the Tarim Basin, China , 2009 .

[12]  T. Ouarda,et al.  Identification of hydrological trends in the presence of serial and cross correlations: A review of selected methods and their application to annual flow regimes of Canadian rivers , 2009 .

[13]  Xi Chen,et al.  Simulation of climate change impacts on streamflow in the Bosten lake basin using an artificial neural network model , 2008 .

[14]  H. Storch,et al.  Analysis of climate variability : applications of statistical techniques : proceedings of an autumn school organized by the Commission of the European Community on Elba from October 30 to November 6, 1993 , 1995 .

[15]  Eric F. Wood,et al.  Observational evidence of an intensifying hydrological cycle in northern Canada , 2009 .

[16]  Yaning Chen,et al.  Effects of climate change on water resources in Tarim River Basin, Northwest China. , 2007, Journal of environmental sciences.

[17]  Yang Wang,et al.  Theoretical studies of C36 encapsulated in zigzag single-wall carbon nanotubes , 2006 .

[18]  Wei Zhang,et al.  Impacts of human activity on river runoff in the northern area of China , 2002 .

[19]  H. Synal,et al.  Seasonal deuterium excess in a Tien Shan ice core: Influence of moisture transport and recycling in Central Asia , 2002 .

[20]  Yaning Chen,et al.  Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on the Surface Runoff in the Tarim River Basin over the Last Fifty Years , 2008 .

[21]  S. Yue,et al.  Canadian streamflow trend detection: impacts of serial and cross-correlation , 2003 .

[22]  Chong-Yu Xu,et al.  Climate changes and their impacts on water resources in the arid regions: a case study of the Tarim River basin, China , 2010 .

[23]  Effect of water vapor feedback on internal and anthropogenic variations of the global hydrologic cycle , 2000 .

[24]  青木 孝.  「Analysis of Climate Variability-Applications of Statistical Techniques」, H.von Storch and A.Navarra編, Springer-Verlag, 1995, 334ページ, US$ 99.00 , 1996 .

[25]  L. Weihong,et al.  Climate change and hydrologic process response in the Tarim River Basin over the past 50 years , 2006 .

[26]  T. Partal,et al.  Trend analysis in Turkish precipitation data , 2006 .

[27]  S. Becker,et al.  Precipitation, temperature and runoff analysis from 1950 to 2002 in the Yangtze basin, China / Analyse des précipitations, températures et débits de 1950 à 2002 dans le bassin du Yangtze, en Chine , 2005 .

[28]  Yaning Chen,et al.  Regional climate change and its effects on river runoff in the Tarim Basin, China , 2006 .

[29]  J. Y. Li,et al.  Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in the Tarim River Basin , 2004 .

[30]  Ioannis K. Tsanis,et al.  Temporal and spatial variation of annual rainfall on the island of Crete, Greece , 2003 .