Potential of Biofuels to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions of the European Transport Sector

Substituting fossil-based transport fuels with biomass-based fuels is a measure that aims to reduce the greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity of transport energy demand and has therefore gained significant policy momentum in recent years. The present paper briefly reviews the main types of biofuels and characteristics of the various production pathways. It sketches out the potential of biofuels in avoiding GHG emissions of the European transport sector. To this end, it reviews the available primary bioenergy potential, calculates the realisable technical potential and finally estimates the economic potential. The conclusion is that by 2020, biofuels could technically contribute up to 26% of the energy consumption of the transport sector when considering the limits imposed by maximum blends and available second generation production capacities, mainly driven by uses in road transport and aviation. This may avoid GHG emissions in the order of 230 Mt CO2-equivalent; nevertheless, the net emission reductions are likely to be smaller if emissions caused by land use changes (direct and indirect) had been accounted for. However, the economic potential is much lower than the technical potential. Considering a scenario with an oil price of 80 €/bbl and a carbon value of 50 €/t CO2, biofuels would reach some 7% of the energy consumption of the transport sector by 2020, reducing GHG emissions in the order of 66 Mt CO2-equivalent.

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