The Energy Transition as a System

As George Bernard Shaw suggested, “the possibilities are numerous once we decide to act and not react”. Indeed, we need to proactively manage the Energy Transition, and not just react to it. This chapter proposes a method for this management. The electricity system is the most complex machine ever built and it is struggling. The current system was designed to meet peaks with ample spare capacity, but the peak load has increased at a time that the total electrical sales have reduced, so less electricity is sold, but in peakier bursts. The supply side of the electricity system is also becoming more difficult to control as variable renewable energy is integrated (wind and PV fluctuate with the weather). We need to flatten the load curve, and align it to renewables generation, while maintaining grid stability. There are strong political headwinds against a more proactive management of the Energy Transition. Our chosen method must be robust to withstand these political headwinds. Systems approaches are useful in managing transitions because they can accommodate dynamic and complex behaviour, and this chapter sets out how systems analysis might be used to manage the Energy Transition.

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