Population ageing: economic effects and some policy implications for financing public pensions.

Population ageing in the OECD area is expected to affect labour and product markets and national rates of saving and capital accumulation. Ageing will also place significant pressures on public finances as the share of future output transferred to a large dependent population rises. This paper discusses some of the potential effects of ageing with particular emphasis on its implications for financing public pensions in Japan the Federal Republic of Germany Sweden and the United States. Future increases in retirement age and reduction of the ratio of benefits to wage levels could help reduce pressures on public finances while a trust fund can help smooth the transition. (EXCERPT)

[1]  J M Keynes,et al.  Some economic consequences of a declining population. , 1937, The Eugenics review.

[2]  G. Myrdal Population : a problem for democracy , 1941 .

[3]  John J. Hanlon,et al.  POPULATION, GROWTH, AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN LOW INCOME COUNTRIES , 1960 .

[4]  Simon Kuznets,et al.  Population Change and Aggregate Output , 1960 .

[5]  Population Growth and Economic Development in Low-Income Countries. , 1960 .

[6]  H. Aaron The Social Insurance Paradox , 1966 .

[7]  J. P. Cunningham,et al.  Projected consumption patterns for a stationary population. , 1972, Population studies.

[8]  Colin D. Campbell,et al.  The Payroll Tax for Social Security. , 1973 .

[9]  N. Keyfitz Individual mobility in a stationary population. , 1973, Population studies.

[10]  M. Feldstein,et al.  Social Security, Induced Retirement, and Aggregate Capital Accumulation , 1974, Journal of Political Economy.

[11]  Consumption Demand and Population Growth Rates , 1974 .

[12]  R. Barro Are Government Bonds Net Wealth? , 1974, Journal of Political Economy.

[13]  M. Feldstein Social Security and Private Savings: International Evidence in an Extended Life Cycle Model , 1977 .

[14]  H. Aaron Demographic Effects on the Equity of Social Security Benefits , 1977 .

[15]  J. Spengler,et al.  Economics of Aging: A Survey , 1978 .

[16]  2 – The Economics of Declining Population Growth: An Assessment of the Current Literature , 1978 .

[17]  How a trend towards a stationary population affects consumer demand. , 1978, Population studies.

[18]  L. Kotlikoff Social Security and Equilibrium Capital Intensity , 1979 .

[19]  R. Barro,et al.  Social security and consumer spending in an international cross section , 1979 .

[20]  M. Darby The effects of social security on income and the capital stock , 1980 .

[21]  James E. Glassman The impact of social security on private saving , 1980 .

[22]  The Economic Consequences of Slowing Population Growth. , 1980 .

[23]  F. Modigliani,et al.  Determinants of private saving with special reference to the role of social security : cross country tests , 1981 .

[24]  L. Kotlikoff,et al.  An Examination of Empirical Tests of Social Security and Savings , 1981 .

[25]  On demographic aging, inflation, and real wages: Some evidence from the Netherlands , 1982, Atlantic economic journal : AEJ.

[26]  How to Guarantee West German Public Pension Payments During the Next Fifty Years , 1982 .

[27]  D. Leimer,et al.  Social Security and Private Saving: New Time-Series Evidence , 1982, Journal of Political Economy.

[28]  S. Ketkar,et al.  Demographic factors and the pattern of household expenditures in the United States , 1982 .

[29]  The Role of Demographic Factors as a Determinant of Savings in Sweden , 1983 .

[30]  F. Modigliani,et al.  The Determinants of National Saving and Wealth , 1983 .

[31]  Social Security and Household Saving in an International Cross Section , 1983 .

[32]  R. Gillingham,et al.  Demographic Effects in Demand Analysis: Estimation of the Quadratic Expenditure System Using Microdata , 1984 .

[33]  The demographics of unfunded pensions , 1985, European journal of population = Revue europeenne de demographie.

[34]  Julian L. Simon,et al.  Theory of Population and Economic Growth. , 1987 .

[35]  Joseph E. Stiglitz,et al.  Economics of the Public Sector , 1986 .

[36]  J. Bourgeois-pichat The unprecedented shortage of births in Europe. , 1986 .

[37]  F. Modigliani Life Cycle, Individual Thrift, and the Wealth of Nations , 1986, Science.

[38]  A. Atkinson Income maintenance and social insurance , 1987 .

[39]  Demographic Change, Economic Growth and Social Welfare in Europe , 1987 .

[40]  R. Fair,et al.  Effects of the Changing U.S. Age Distribution on Macroeconomic Equations , 1987 .

[41]  L. Kotlikoff Intergenerational Transfers and Savings , 1987 .

[42]  R. Hemming,et al.  The Impact of Demographic Change on Social Security Financing , 1987, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[43]  Japan's Household Savings Rate: An Application of the Life-Cycle Hypothesis , 1987 .

[44]  A. Munnell,et al.  The Changing Profile of Pensions in America , 1987 .

[45]  Laurence J. Kotlikoff,et al.  Dynamic Fiscal Policy , 1988 .

[46]  Social Security and the American Family , 1987, Tax Policy and the Economy.

[47]  L. Kotlikoff Justifying Public Provision of Social Security , 1987 .

[48]  R. Ricardo-Campbell,et al.  Below-Replacement Fertility in Industrial Societies: Causes, Consequences, Policies , 1988 .

[49]  B. Heenan,et al.  Population studies , 1988, Progress in human geography.

[50]  EFFECTS OF CHANGING AGE STRUCTURE ON CONSUMPTION AND SAVING , 1989 .

[51]  L. Kotlikoff,et al.  The Economic Dynamics of an Ageing Population: The Case of Four OECD Countries , 1989 .

[52]  G. Nicoletti,et al.  Ageing Populations: Economic Effects and Implications for Public Finance , 1989 .