DEVS modelling and simulation of human social interaction and influence

The social influence is at the centre of consideration in social science. In industrial engineering, although the enterprise has reached the age of the electronic communication, the human direct communication is not sufficiently considered even if it remains critical communication vector to transmit information. The idea is to predict some human attributes behaviour that will help enterprise to make efficient decision. The research in the domain gives significant results but the impact of information on individuals within a social network is, mostly, statically modelled where the dynamic aspect is not frequently tackled. The individual's reaction to a change within an organisation or ecosystem (implementation of a new system, new security instructions?etc.) is not always rationale. The opinion of individuals is influenced by information gathered about the attributes of the technology from other members of their social network. In addition, the works about modelling and simulation of the population's reactions to an event do not use explicit specification languages to support their models. A behavioural specification model is one critical missing link. Adding a clear behavioural model can help for specification verification and reuse. From literature, the DEVS formalism (Discrete EVent system Specifications) appears to be general enough to represent such dynamical systems (Zeigler et al., 2000). It provides operational semantics applicable to this domain. The contributions of this work are dynamic models of individuals using low-level language to simulate the propagation of information among a group of individuals and its influence on their behaviour. In more detail, we define a set of models of individuals characterized by a set of state variables and the mesh between the individuals within a social network. Then, we introduce the information diffusion based on epidemic spreading algorithms and we transpose them into the case of the message propagation in a social network. Finally, a basic scenario is used to give a beginning of validation to our models using a platform based on DEVS formalism.

[1]  Kyu Ho Park,et al.  A Real-Time Discrete Event System Specification Formalism for Seamless Real-Time Software Development , 1997, Discret. Event Dyn. Syst..

[2]  Naren Ramakrishnan,et al.  Epidemiological modeling of news and rumors on Twitter , 2013, SNAKDD '13.

[3]  Pedro M. Domingos Mining Social Networks for Viral Marketing , 2022 .

[4]  Celso Leandro Palma,et al.  Simulation: The Practice of Model Development and Use , 2016 .

[5]  Gabriel A. Wainer Applying Cell-DEVS Methodology for Modeling the Environment , 2006, Simul..

[6]  Massimo Marchiori,et al.  Error and attacktolerance of complex network s , 2004 .

[7]  Bernard P. Zeigler,et al.  Discrete event modeling and simulation technologies : a tapestry of systems and AI-based theories and methodologies , 2001 .

[8]  Noah E. Friedkin,et al.  Choice Shift and Group Polarization , 1999, American Sociological Review.

[9]  Naoyuki Kubota,et al.  Prediction of Human Behavior Patterns based on Spiking Neurons for A Partner Robot , 2006, ROMAN 2006 - The 15th IEEE International Symposium on Robot and Human Interactive Communication.

[10]  William Salter,et al.  An Application of Epidemiological Modeling to Information Diffusion , 2010, SBP.

[11]  Jure Leskovec,et al.  Patterns of Influence in a Recommendation Network , 2006, PAKDD.

[12]  Bernard P. Zeigler,et al.  DEVS formalism and methodology: unity of conception/diversity of application , 1993, WSC '93.

[13]  Fahad Awadh Bait Shiginah Multi-Layer Cellular DEVS Formalism for Faster Model Development and Simulation Efficiency , 2006 .

[14]  M. Newman Spread of epidemic disease on networks. , 2002, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[15]  Jean-Baptiste Filippi,et al.  JDEVS: an implementation of a DEVS based formal framework for environmental modelling , 2004, Environ. Model. Softw..

[16]  Raphaël Duboz,et al.  The Virtual Laboratory Environment - An operational framework for multi-modelling, simulation and analysis of complex dynamical systems , 2009, Simul. Model. Pract. Theory.

[17]  John Pourdehnad,et al.  System Dynamics and Intelligent Agent-Based Simulation : Where is the Synergy ? , 2022 .

[18]  J. Goldenberg,et al.  The chilling effects of network externalities , 2010 .

[19]  Tatsuya Suzuki,et al.  Modeling of Human Behavior in Man-Machine Cooperative System Based on Hybrid System Framework , 2007, Proceedings 2007 IEEE International Conference on Robotics and Automation.

[20]  Gabriel Wainer,et al.  Timed cell-DEVS: modeling and simulation of cell spaces , 2001 .

[21]  Bernard P. Zeigler,et al.  Parallel DEVS: a parallel, hierarchical, modular modeling formalism , 1994, Proceedings of Winter Simulation Conference.

[22]  Tag Gon Kim,et al.  The DEVS framework for discrete event systems control , 1994, Fifth Annual Conference on AI, and Planning in High Autonomy Systems.

[23]  Hazhir Rahmandad,et al.  Heterogeneity and Network Structure in the Dynamics of Diffusion: Comparing Agent-Based and Differential Equation Models , 2004, Manag. Sci..

[24]  Rosanna Garcia Uses of Agent-Based Modeling in Innovation/New Product Development Research , 2005 .

[25]  Peter H. Reingen,et al.  Social Ties and Word-of-Mouth Referral Behavior , 1987 .

[26]  Frank M. Bass,et al.  A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables , 2004, Manag. Sci..

[27]  N. Ferguson,et al.  Role of social networks in shaping disease transmission during a community outbreak of 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza , 2011, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[28]  A. Maslow A Theory of Human Motivation , 1943 .

[29]  M. Newman,et al.  Simple model of epidemics with pathogen mutation. , 2001, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[30]  Hongyi Li,et al.  The effects of time delay of internet on characteristics of human behaviors , 2009, 2009 International Conference on Networking, Sensing and Control.

[31]  Gabriel A. Wainer,et al.  Applying Cellular Automata and DEVS Methodologies to Digital Games: A Survey , 2010 .

[32]  David B. Fogel,et al.  An introduction to simulated evolutionary optimization , 1994, IEEE Trans. Neural Networks.

[33]  Bernard P. Zeigler,et al.  Theory of Modelling and Simulation , 1979, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics.

[34]  Ming Yang,et al.  Verification of Human Decision Models in Military Simulations , 2007, First Asia International Conference on Modelling & Simulation (AMS'07).

[35]  J. French,et al.  A formal theory of social power. , 1956, Psychological review.

[36]  Rainer Hegselmann,et al.  Opinion dynamics and bounded confidence: models, analysis and simulation , 2002, J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul..

[37]  Jacob Goldenberg,et al.  Cellular automata modeling of resistance to innovations: Effects and solutions , 2004 .

[38]  Steffen Staab,et al.  Social Networks Applied , 2005, IEEE Intell. Syst..

[39]  Mathias John,et al.  Combining micro and macro-modeling in DEVS for computational biology , 2007, 2007 Winter Simulation Conference.

[40]  Michael D. Coovert,et al.  Mathematical Modeling of Decision Making: A Soft and Fuzzy Approach to Capturing Hard Decisions , 2003, Hum. Factors.

[41]  M. Degroot Reaching a Consensus , 1974 .

[42]  Jacob Goldenberg,et al.  From Density to Destiny: Using Spatial Dimension of Sales Data for Early Prediction of New Product Success , 2004 .

[43]  Norbert Giambiasi,et al.  Using DEVS for Modeling and Simulation of Human Behaviour , 2004, AIS.

[44]  Jacob Goldenberg,et al.  Talk of the Network: A Complex Systems Look at the Underlying Process of Word-of-Mouth , 2001 .

[45]  Jacques Ferber,et al.  Multi-agent systems - an introduction to distributed artificial intelligence , 1999 .

[46]  E. Rogers Diffusion of Innovations: Modifications of a Model for Telecommunications , 1995 .

[47]  Mark S. Granovetter Threshold Models of Collective Behavior , 1978, American Journal of Sociology.

[48]  Jacob Goldenberg,et al.  A Comparison of the Effects of Transmitter Activity and Connectivity on the Diffusion of Information over Online Social Networks , 2010 .

[49]  Richard W. Pew,et al.  Modeling human and organizational behavior : application to military simulations , 1998 .

[50]  Zhuomin Sun Multi-Agent Based Modeling: Methods and Techniques for Investigating Human Behaviors , 2007, 2007 International Conference on Mechatronics and Automation.

[51]  Gabriel A. Wainer,et al.  CD++: a toolkit to define discrete-event models , 2002 .

[52]  Alexander Grey,et al.  The Mathematical Theory of Infectious Diseases and Its Applications , 1977 .

[53]  Gabriel A. Wainer,et al.  N-dimensional Cell-DEVS Models , 2002, Discret. Event Dyn. Syst..

[54]  Fernando J. Barros,et al.  The dynamic structure discrete event system specification formalism , 1996 .

[55]  M. Markus,et al.  On-off intermittency and intermingledlike basins in a granular medium. , 2002, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[56]  R. Cialdini Influence: Science and Practice , 1984 .

[57]  Albert-László Barabási,et al.  Error and attack tolerance of complex networks , 2000, Nature.

[58]  J. Goldenberg,et al.  The Role of Hubs in the Adoption Process , 2009 .

[59]  Gabriel A. Wainer CD++: a toolkit to develop DEVS models , 2002, Softw. Pract. Exp..

[60]  V. K. Mago,et al.  Social interactions of eating behaviour among high school students: a cellular automata approach , 2012, BMC Medical Research Methodology.

[61]  E. Young Contagion , 2015, New Scientist.

[62]  J. Schwartz,et al.  Theory of Self-Reproducing Automata , 1967 .