Conflict resolution through mutuality: Lessons from Bayesian updating

If priors are deterministic (zero or unity) and conditional evidence is uncertain (lies between zero and one) then Bayesian updating will lead to posteriors that are the same as priors. This in a sense explains the persistence of fundamentalist belief. Under such a belief system, only if conditional evidence is deterministic and diametrically opposite to that of the prior then a process of change can set in. Conflict resolution is possible through dialogues that calls for mutual respect and allows reasonable pluralism - a Rawlsian prerequisite. If interaction is the basis then self-defeating scenarios can be avoided by giving space to others. Thus, in the political sphere one has to be accommodative.

[1]  D. Davidson,et al.  The Folly of Trying to Define Truth , 1996, The Nature of Truth.

[2]  I. Markham.  Ethnic Conflict and Civic Life. Hindus and Muslims in India , 2004 .

[3]  Wang Yi-fen,et al.  On "Clash of Civilization" , 2010 .

[4]  J. Martin,et al.  Power, Authority, and the Constraint of Belief Systems1 , 2002, American Journal of Sociology.

[5]  R. Rob,et al.  Learning, Mutation, and Long Run Equilibria in Games , 1993 .

[6]  James M. Joyce.  Interpreting Probability: Controversies and Developments in the Early Twentieth Century , 2004 .

[7]  Byron Hall.  Bayesian Inference , 2011 .

[8]  Tilman Börgers.  ON THE RELEVANCE OF LEARNING AND EVOLUTION TO ECONOMIC THEORY , 1996 .

[9]  Peter Urbach,et al.  Scientific Reasoning: The Bayesian Approach , 1989 .

[10]  A. Varshney.  Ethnic Conflict and Civic Life: Hindus and Muslims in India , 2002 .

[11]  M. Krieger.  Could the Probability of Doom Be Zero or One , 1995 .

[12]  Horacio Arló-Costa.  Bayesian Epistemology and Epistemic Conditionals: On the Status of the Export-Import Laws , 2001 .

[13]  Charles Kemp,et al.  Bayesian Belief Polarization , 2009, NIPS.

[14]  Stephen Jay Gould,et al.  Ever Since Darwin: Reflections in Natural History , 1977 .

[15]  Howard White,et al.  Econometrics and Data Analysis for Developing Countries , 1998 .

[16]  Thomas Kelly,et al.  Disagreement, Dogmatism, and Belief Polarization , 2008 .

[17]  Srijit Mishra.  Counter Conflict through Mutuality: Lessons from Bayesian Updating , 2009 .

[18]  H. Beebee,et al.  Probability as a Guide to Life , 1997 .

[19]  José Tavares,et al.  Economics and Terrorism: What We Know, What We Should Know and the Data We Need , 2008 .

[20]  Reinhard Selten,et al.  The work of John F. Nash Jr. in game theory. , 1995 .

[21]  Marc Lange,et al.  Calibration and the Epistemological Role of Bayesian Conditionalization , 1999 .

[22]  J. Victoroff.  The Mind of the Terrorist , 2005 .

[23]  S. James Press,et al.  The Subjectivity of Scientists and the Bayesian Approach: Press/The Subjectivity , 2001 .

[24]  Srijit Mishra.  Understanding Fundamentalist Belief Through Bayesian Updating , 2002 .

[25]  J. Rawls,et al.  Justice as Fairness: A Restatement , 2001 .

[26]  P. Camus,et al.  Ever since Darwin , 2009 .

[27]  W. Eckhardt.  A shooting-room view of doomsday , 1997 .

[28]  S. Gould.  Full House: The Spread of Excellence from Plato to Darwin , 1996 .

[29]  D. Nelkin.  Two Standpoints and the Belief in Freedom , 2000 .

[30]  A. Baccini.  Frequentist Probability and Choice under Uncertainty , 2001 .

[31]  P. Pettit,et al.  Freedom in Belief and Desire , 1996 .

[32]  J. Plato.  Creating Modern Probability: Its Mathematics, Physics and Philosophy in Historical Perspective , 1994 .