A Dynamic Stochastic Model Applied to the Analysis of the Web User Behavior

We present a dynamical model of web user behavior based on a mathematical theory of psychological behavior from Usher and McClelland and the random utility model from McFadden. We adapt the probabilistic model to the decision making process that follows each web user when decide which link will continue to browse. Those stochastic models have been fully tested in a variety of neurophysiological studies, and then we base our research on them. The adapted model describes, in probability, the time course that a web user performs for taking the decision to follow a particular hyperlink or to leave the web site. The model has parameter to be fitted based on historical user sessions, the web site structure and content. The advantage of using this point of view is that the web user model is independent of the web site, and then its can predict changes on the web usage based on changes on the web site.

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