Loss estimation for landslides in mountain areas - An integrated toolbox for vulnerability assessment and damage documentation

Global environmental change includes changes in a wide range of global scale phenomena, which are expected to affect a number of physical processes, as well as the vulnerability of the communities that will experience their impact. Decision-makers are in need of tools that will enable them to assess the loss of such processes under different future scenarios and to design risk reduction strategies. In this paper, a tool is presented that can be used by a range of end-users (e.g. local authorities, decision makers, etc.) for the assessment of the monetary loss from future landslide events, with a particular focus on torrential processes. The toolbox includes three functions: a) enhancement of the post-event damage data collection process, b) assessment of monetary loss of future events and c) continuous updating and improvement of an existing vulnerability curve by adding data of recent events. All functions of the tool are demonstrated through examples of its application. We developed a tool that will support decision making for disaster risk reduction strategies in mountain areas.The tool incorporates three functions: damage documentation, loss estimation and updating of the vulnerability curve.The tool was applied and tested in South Tyrol, Italy.Future developments (more elements at risks and hazards, uncertainty analysis, mobile applications) have been pointed out.

[1]  Jörn Birkmann,et al.  Vulnerability assessment in natural hazard and risk analysis: current approaches and future challenges , 2012, Natural Hazards.

[2]  A. Badoux,et al.  The Swiss flood and landslide damage database 1972–2007 , 2009 .

[3]  Sven Fuchs,et al.  QUANTITATIVE VULNERABILITY FUNCTIONS FOR USE IN MOUNTAIN HAZARD RISK MANAGEMENT THE CHALLENGE OF TRANSFER , 2012 .

[4]  Sven Fuchs,et al.  Susceptibility versus resilience to mountain hazards in Austria - paradigms of vulnerability revisited , 2009 .

[5]  Ioana Popescu,et al.  Parametric and physically based modelling techniques for flood risk and vulnerability assessment: A comparison , 2013, Environ. Model. Softw..

[6]  Hans Kienholz,et al.  Aspects of integral risk management in practice: Considerations with respect to mountain hazards in Switzerland , 2004 .

[7]  Michael Bründl,et al.  The risk concept and its application in natural hazard risk management in Switzerland , 2009 .

[8]  Margreth Keiler,et al.  Challenges of analyzing multi-hazard risk: a review , 2012, Natural Hazards.

[9]  Jorge Mateu,et al.  Spatial pattern modelling of wildfires in Catalonia, Spain 2004-2008 , 2013, Environ. Model. Softw..

[10]  Ting-Chi Tsao,et al.  Building vulnerability to debris flows in Taiwan: a preliminary study , 2012, Natural Hazards.

[11]  Pete Smith,et al.  Sensitivity of crop model predictions to entire meteorological and soil input datasets highlights vulnerability to drought , 2012, Environ. Model. Softw..

[12]  Markus Holub,et al.  Mitigating mountain hazards in Austria – legislation, risk transfer, and awareness building , 2009 .

[13]  M. L. Carreño,et al.  Framing vulnerability, risk and societal responses: the MOVE framework , 2013, Natural Hazards.

[14]  Sandhya Samarasinghe,et al.  Mixed-method integration and advances in fuzzy cognitive maps for computational policy simulations for natural hazard mitigation , 2013, Environ. Model. Softw..

[15]  M Edwin “Avalanche risk assessment a multi temporal approach, results from Galtür, Austria“, de M. Keiler, R. Sailer, P. Jörg, C. Weber, S. Fuchs, A. Zischg, and S. Sauermoser , 1970 .

[16]  Sven Fuchs,et al.  Fuzzy Formative Scenario Analysis for woody material transport related risks in mountain torrents , 2010, Environ. Model. Softw..

[17]  Andreas Paul Zischg,et al.  Avalanche risk assessment – a multi-temporal approach, results from Galtür, Austria , 2006 .

[18]  Thomas Glade,et al.  Geomorphological Hazards and Disaster Prevention: Vulnerability analysis in geomorphic risk assessment , 2010 .

[19]  M. Jakob,et al.  Vulnerability of buildings to debris flow impact , 2011, Natural Hazards.

[20]  Michael Bründl,et al.  Damage Potential and Losses Resulting from Snow Avalanches in Settlements of the Canton of Grisons, Switzerland , 2005 .

[21]  Robert G. Bell,et al.  Quantitative multi-risk analysis for natural hazards: a framework for multi-risk modelling , 2011 .

[22]  J. Hübl,et al.  Towards an empirical vulnerability function for use in debris flow risk assessment , 2007 .

[23]  K Westgate,et al.  UNDRO - Disaster Prevention and Mitigation - Compendium of Current Knowledge - United-Nations , 1978 .

[24]  M. Keiler,et al.  Assessing physical vulnerability for multi-hazards using an indicator-based methodology , 2012 .

[25]  Thomas Glade,et al.  Conceptual Frameworks of Vulnerability Assessments for Natural Disasters Reduction , 2013 .

[26]  J. Knight,et al.  Climate change and geomorphological hazards in the eastern European Alps , 2010, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[27]  Annegret H. Thieken,et al.  Review article: assessing the costs of natural hazards - state of the art and knowledge gaps , 2013 .

[28]  L Stanbrough,et al.  Encyclopedia of Natural Hazards , 2011 .

[29]  J. N. Hutchinson,et al.  A review of the classification of landslides of the flow type , 2001 .

[30]  J. Blahůt,et al.  Critical assessment of existing physical vulnerability estimation approaches for debris flows , 2022 .

[31]  Keith Smith,et al.  Floods: Physical Processes and Human Impacts , 1998 .

[32]  T. Glade,et al.  Improvement of vulnerability curves using data from extreme events: debris flow event in South Tyrol , 2012, Natural Hazards.

[33]  Andreas Paul Zischg,et al.  The long-term development of avalanche risk in settlements considering the temporal variability of damage potential , 2005 .

[34]  Thomas Glade,et al.  A new vulnerability function for debris flow - the importance of physical vulnerability assessment in alpine areas , 2012 .

[35]  C. J. van Westen,et al.  The application of numerical debris flow modelling for the generation of physical vulnerability curves , 2011 .

[36]  Andreas Paul Zischg,et al.  Temporal variability of damage potential on roads as a conceptual contribution towards a short-term avalanche risk simulation , 2005 .

[37]  T. Stocker,et al.  Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 2012 .

[38]  Michael Bründl,et al.  Avalanche Hazard Mitigation Strategies Assessed by Cost Effectiveness Analyses and Cost Benefit Analyses—evidence from Davos, Switzerland , 2007 .

[39]  Carlo Giupponi,et al.  A dynamic assessment tool for exploring and communicating vulnerability to floods and climate change , 2013, Environ. Model. Softw..

[40]  Hans-Martin Füssel,et al.  Vulnerability: A generally applicable conceptual framework for climate change research , 2007 .

[41]  Sven Fuchs,et al.  A quantitative vulnerability function for fluvial sediment transport , 2011 .

[42]  Stefan Greiving,et al.  A Methodology for an integrated risk assessment of spatially relevant hazards , 2006 .

[43]  Sven Fuchs,et al.  Spatial scan statistics in vulnerability assessment: an application to mountain hazards , 2012, Natural Hazards.

[44]  Sven Fuchs,et al.  Editorial for the special issue: vulnerability to natural hazards—the challenge of integration , 2011 .

[45]  Andreas Paul Zischg,et al.  Avalanche related damage potential - changes of persons and mobile values since the mid-twentieth century, case study Galtür , 2005 .

[46]  Suzanne Lacasse,et al.  A conceptual framework for quantitative estimation of physical vulnerability to landslides , 2008 .

[47]  T. Glade,et al.  Physical vulnerability assessment for alpine hazards: state of the art and future needs , 2011 .

[48]  F. Bendimerad,et al.  Loss estimation: a powerful tool for risk assessment and mitigation , 2001 .

[49]  Hope A. Seligson,et al.  HAZUS-MH Flood Loss Estimation Methodology. I: Overview and Flood Hazard Characterization , 2006 .

[50]  Sven Fuchs,et al.  Mountain torrents: Quantifying vulnerability and assessing uncertainties , 2013, Engineering geology.

[51]  Volker Meyer,et al.  Valuating the intangible effects of natural hazards: A review and evaluation of the cost-assessment methods. , 2011 .

[52]  Thomas Glade,et al.  Quantification of model uncertainty in debris flow vulnerability assessment , 2014 .

[53]  M. L. Carreño,et al.  Probabilistic earthquake risk assessment using CAPRA: application to the city of Barcelona, Spain , 2013, Natural Hazards.

[54]  Gilles Dusserre,et al.  Development of a spatial risk assessment tool for the transportation of hydrocarbons: Methodology and implementation in a geographical information system , 2013, Environ. Model. Softw..

[55]  Boris Kompare,et al.  Environmental Modelling & Software , 2014 .

[56]  Heiko Apel,et al.  Flood risk analyses—how detailed do we need to be? , 2009 .

[57]  Michael Bründl EconoMe-Develop - a software tool for assessing natural hazard risk and economic optimisation of mitigation measures , 2012 .

[58]  Sven Fuchs,et al.  Mountain hazards: reducing vulnerability by adapted building design , 2012, Environmental Earth Sciences.

[59]  Margreth Keiler World-wide trends in natural disasters , 2013 .

[60]  M. Keiler Geomorphology and Complexity – inseparably connected? , 2011 .

[61]  Margreth Keiler,et al.  Preface: concepts and implications of environmental change and human impact: studies from austrian geomorphological research , 2012 .

[62]  Sven Fuchs,et al.  Spatiotemporal dynamics: the need for an innovative approach in mountain hazard risk management , 2013, Natural Hazards.

[63]  Reimund Schwarze,et al.  Review Article "Valuating the intangible effects of natural hazards – review and analysis of the costing methods" , 2012 .

[64]  J. Barredo Normalised flood losses in Europe: 1970-2006 , 2009 .