A probabilistic predictive model for residential mobility in Australia

Household relocation modelling is an integral part of the planning process as residential movements influence the demand for community facilities and services. Department of Families, Housing, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs (FaHCSIA) created the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) program to collect reliable longitudinal data on family and household dynamics. Socio-demographic information (such as general health situation and well-being, lifestyle changes, residential mobility, income and welfare dynamics, and labour market dynamics) is collected from the sampled individuals and households. The data shows that approximately 17% of Australian households and 13% of couple families in the HILDA sample relocate residence each year. Yet, little is known on how this information can be utilised to develop a predictive model of household relocation. This study links changes in employment status and household types to a reliable estimate of the residential relocation probability by developing a Logit model to explain the residential relocation in Sydney metropolitan area using the HILDA dataset.

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