Reliability-Based Methodology for Life Prediction of Ship Structures

Recent advances in structural analysis technology such as the finite element method, improvements in the ability to model realistic sea loads, development of fatigue and fracture mechanics methods, development of reliability analysis methods, and the rapid advancements in computing technology, make it possible to develop methods to evaluate the structural strength of a ship, considering the requirements of its mission. In assessing the life expectancy of a ship structure, one must consider the through life degradation of the structural system and its potential failure modes. This paper describes the fundaments of a reliability-based method for life expectancy analysis of ship structures, considering first-passage failure modes and fatigue failure mode, in an intact or degraded condition. As for fatigue analysis, a method based on probabilistic linear fracture mechanics and capable of modeling the effects of the weld induced residual stress is presented. The paper includes a detailed example of fatigue analysis of a typical ship structural joint using the probabilistic fracture mechanics method. The effect of the residual stresses and corrosion on the joint reliability is evaluated through a parametric study. 1 Professor and Director, Center for Technology and Systems Management, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland. 2 Assistant Professor, Department of Mechatronics and Mechanical Systems, University of São Paulo, Brazil. Presently a visiting scholar in the Center for Technology and Systems Management, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland.

[1]  T. A. Shugar,et al.  Reliability-based fatigue analysis and design of floating structures , 2001 .

[2]  H. O. Fuchs,et al.  Metal fatigue in engineering , 2001 .

[3]  Bilal M. Ayyub,et al.  Probabilistic Fatigue Life Prediction for Ship Structures Using Fracture Mechanics , 2000 .

[4]  Maurice Bryson,et al.  Probability, Statistics, and Reliability for Engineers , 1997, Technometrics.

[5]  B. Ayyub,et al.  RELIABILITY-BASED DESIGN FOR FATIGUE OF MARINE STRUCTURES , 1999 .

[6]  Robert J. Dexter,et al.  Fatigue and Fracture , 1999 .

[7]  W. Fricke,et al.  Uncertainty Modeling for Fatigue Strength Assessment of Welded Structures , 1998 .

[8]  S. V. Petinov,et al.  The Application of S-N Curves Considering Mismatch of Stress Concentration Between Test Specimen and Structure , 1998 .

[9]  C. Guedes Soares,et al.  Reliability-Based Design of the Primary Structure of Oil Tankers , 1997 .

[10]  T. Xu,et al.  Fatigue of ship structural details : Technical development and problems , 1997 .

[11]  S. Sarkani,et al.  Mean stress effects in steel weldments subjected to constant amplitude fatigue loadings , 1996 .

[12]  H. Ren,et al.  Long-term reliability analysis of ship hulls including nonlinear wave loads , 1996 .

[13]  Bruce R. Ellingwood.  Engineering Reliability and Risk Analysis for Water Resources Investments; Role of Structural Degradation in Time-Dependent Reliability Analysis. , 1995 .

[14]  M. L. Kaminski,et al.  RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF FATIGUE SENSITIVE JOINTS IN FPSO , 1995 .

[15]  Bilal M. Ayyub,et al.  Applications in Ship Structures , 1995 .

[16]  Bruce R. Ellingwood,et al.  Probabilistic methods for condition assessment and life prediction of concrete structures in nuclear power plants , 1993 .

[17]  Denny A. Jones.  Principles and prevention of corrosion , 1991 .

[18]  S. J. Maddox,et al.  Fatigue strength of welded structures , 1991 .

[19]  Gregory J. White,et al.  Comparative Structural Life Assessment of Patrol Boat Bottom Plating , 1990 .

[20]  Bilal M. Ayyub,et al.  Life expectancy assessment of marine structures , 1990 .

[21]  Gregory J. White,et al.  Estimation of Structural Service Life of Ships , 1989 .

[22]  C. Guedes Soares,et al.  Time-dependent reliability of the primary ship structure , 1989 .

[23]  Bilal M. Ayyub,et al.  RELIABILITY METHODS FOR SHIP STRUCTURES , 1985 .

[24]  Paul H. Wirsching,et al.  Fatigue Reliability for Offshore Structures , 1984 .

[25]  B. Ayyub,et al.  Practical Structural Reliability Techniques , 1984 .

[26]  A. H. S. Ang,et al.  Probability Concepts in Engineering Planning and Design Volume II Decision , 1984 .

[27]  Owen F. Hughes,et al.  Ship Structural Design: A Rationally-based, Computer-aided, Optimization Approach , 1983 .

[28]  Jerome P. Sikora,et al.  A METHOD FOR ESTIMATING LIFETIME LOADS AND FATIGUE LIVES FOR SWATH AND CONVENTIONAL MONOHULL SHIPS , 1983 .

[29]  W H Munse,et al.  Fatigue Characterization of Fabricated Ship Details for Design. , 1982 .

[30]  K. Masubuchi.  Analysis of Welded Structures , 1980 .

[31]  Robert Taggart.  Ship design and construction , 1980 .

[32]  Stanley T. Rolfe,et al.  Fracture and Fatigue Control in Structures: Applications of Fracture Mechanics , 1976 .

[33]  J. Adamchak.  A RAPID TECHNIQUE FOR PREDICTING THE GENERAL INSTABILITY OF SHIP GRILLAGES WITH ELASTICALLY CONSTRAINED EDGES , 1975 .

[34]  D. Faulkner.  A REVIEW OF EFFECTIVE PLATING TO BE USED IN THE ANALYSIS OF STIFFENED PLATING IN BENDING AND COMPRESSION , 1973 .