An improved evidential DEMATEL identify critical success factors under uncertain environment

How to improve emergency management is still an open issue. In real application, since it is unpractical to optimize all of influential factors, a feasible way is to find out the critical success factors (CSF) to improve. In this paper, the existing evidential DEMATEL method is improved to be more reasonable. Inspired by belief entropy, a new function which is used to calculate the reliability of the information is defined. Then, DEMATEL method is applied on each fused BPA multiplied by the reliability coefficient to seek for a final result. Finally, five critical success factors are figured out. By optimizing these five factors, the effectiveness and efficiency of the whole emergency management system could be greatly promoted.

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