SENSITIVITY AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS IN MRIO MODELLING; SOME EMPIRICAL RESULTS WITH REGARD TO THE DUTCH CARBON FOOTPRINT

Environmental multi-regional input–output (MRIO) models require large amounts of data that all have their specific uncertainties. This paper presents a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis in order to gain an understanding of the directions in which efforts should be made to reduce these uncertainties. The analyses were carried out for an MRIO model to calculate the Dutch carbon footprint. A sensitivity analysis of the technical coefficients showed that changes in the coefficients in the domestic blocks and in the Dutch import blocks had the largest effects on the calculated footprint. The uncertainty analysis consisting of a Monte Carlo simulation based on probability distributions around the model coefficients showed a relatively low degree of uncertainty in the total Dutch carbon footprint; uncertainties in the carbon emissions allocated to regions, sectors and products were larger. Both analyses showed that, in certain cases, it is justified to apply a partial MRIO analysis.

[1]  Glen P. Peters,et al.  Efficient algorithms for Life Cycle Assessment, Input-Output Analysis, and Monte-Carlo Analysis , 2007 .

[2]  B. W. Ang,et al.  Input–output analysis of CO2 emissions embodied in trade: The effects of spatial aggregation , 2010 .

[3]  J. Sherman,et al.  Adjustment of an Inverse Matrix Corresponding to a Change in One Element of a Given Matrix , 1950 .

[4]  S. Suh.  Handbook of input-output economics in industrial ecology , 2009 .

[5]  Glen P. Peters,et al.  CONSTRUCTING AN ENVIRONMENTALLY-EXTENDED MULTI-REGIONAL INPUT–OUTPUT TABLE USING THE GTAP DATABASE , 2011 .

[6]  J. V. D. Linden.  Fields of influence of technological change in EC intercountry input-output tables, 1970-80 , 1995 .

[7]  Manfred Lenzen,et al.  Endogenising capital: a comparison of two methods , 2004 .

[8]  H. V. Gelder.  The Netherlands , 2004, Constitutions of Europe (2 vols.).

[9]  G. Peters,et al.  APPROXIMATION AND REGIONAL AGGREGATION IN MULTI-REGIONAL INPUT–OUTPUT ANALYSIS FOR NATIONAL CARBON FOOTPRINT ACCOUNTING , 2009 .

[10]  Manfred Lenzen,et al.  A CARBON FOOTPRINT TIME SERIES OF THE UK – RESULTS FROM A MULTI-REGION INPUT–OUTPUT MODEL , 2010 .

[11]  Manfred Lenzen,et al.  UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS FOR MULTI-REGION INPUT–OUTPUT MODELS – A CASE STUDY OF THE UK'S CARBON FOOTPRINT , 2010 .

[12]  Huey-Lin Lee,et al.  An Emissions Data Base for Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Policy Using GTAP , 2002 .

[13]  Clark W. Bullard,et al.  Effects of parametric uncertainty and technological change on input-output models / CAC No. 156 , 1977 .

[14]  Michael Sonis,et al.  Coefficient Change in Input–Output Models: Theory and Applications , 1992 .

[15]  Robert McDougall,et al.  Global trade, assistance, and production : The GTAP 5 Data Base , 2002 .

[16]  B. W. Ang,et al.  Input–output analysis of CO2 emissions embodied in trade: The effects of sector aggregation , 2010 .

[17]  Clark W. Bullard,et al.  Monte Carlo Sensitivity Analysis of Input-Output Models , 1988 .

[18]  T. Wiedmann.  EDITORIAL: CARBON FOOTPRINT AND INPUT–OUTPUT ANALYSIS – AN INTRODUCTION , 2009 .

[19]  S. Lutter,et al.  Quo Vadis MRIO? Methodological, data and institutional requirements for multi-region input-output analysis , 2011 .

[20]  Manfred Lenzen,et al.  CO2 Multipliers in Multi-region Input-Output Models , 2004 .

[21]  Manfred Lenzen,et al.  Examining the global environmental impact of regional consumption activities — Part 2: Review of input–output models for the assessment of environmental impacts embodied in trade , 2007 .

[22]  S. Rose,et al.  Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Data for Climate Change Economic Analysis , 2008, GTAP Working Paper.