Using ensemble weather predictions in district heating operation and load forecasting

Ensemble weather predictions are introduced in the operation of district heating systems to create a heat load forecast with dynamic uncertainties. These provide a new and valuable tool for time-dependent risk assessment related to e.g. security of supply and the energy markets. As such, it is useful in both the production planning and the online operation of a modern district heating system, in particular in light of the low-temperature operation, integration of renewable energy and close interaction with the electricity markets. In this paper, a simple autoregressive forecast model with weather prediction input is used to showcase the new concept. On the study period, its performance is comparable to more complex forecast models. The total uncertainty of the heat load forecast is divided into a constant model uncertainty plus a time-dependent weather-based uncertainty. The latter varies by as much as a factor of 18 depending on the ensemble spread. As a consequence, the total forecast uncertainty varies significantly. The forecast model is applied to the operation of three heat exchanger stations. Applying an optimized temperature control can significantly lower supply temperatures compared to current operation. Improving the temperature control with dynamic time-dependent weather-based uncertainties can lower the supply temperature further and reduce heat losses to the ground. The potential benefit of using dynamic uncertainties is larger for systems with relatively smaller pumping capacities.