Integrated technical paradigm based novel approach towards photovoltaic power generation technology

Abstract Photovoltaic (PV) has been regarded as the most promising, technically viable large-scale renewable energy source for a sustainable society. However, as the demand for solar energy is generally rising, the world needs to fundamentally reconsider the development of PV generation technology. The objective of this study is to propose a comprehensive method to study the role of technological paradigms in the development of PV generation, and to contribute to PV generation policy recommendations and system management. A novel document data mining analysis system and the technological paradigm theory are used to conduct the study. PV generation technology paradigm composed of paradigm competition, diffusion and shift is established to explain the technological changes in the use of PV energy. In this paper, the autoregressive moving average model is used to make short-term forecasts of the PV generation installed capacity, and to compare with the data predicted by Prospective Industry Research Institute. The results show that the forecasting method herein is effective and reliable. Also, this paper discusses the benefits and barriers of PV generation technology. However, to achieve higher market share in electricity generation, more support policies, multi-level cooperation, technical support and capital investment are needed. Moreover, this study provides an analysis framework for the soft path analysis of PV generation technology to achieve sustainable PV technological development.

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