Response of the Middle Atmosphere to Solar Variability — Model Simulations

Solar flux variations could affect the middle atmosphere through modulating the photolysis of chemical series and solar heating rates. Indirect feedback effects from chemical, radiative, and dynamical interactions could provide additional sources for perturbations in the middle atmosphere. In this paper, recent developments in modeling the effect of solar variability on the middle atmosphere is described. For the 27-day solar rotational cycle, the temperature and ozone response in the stratosphere predicted by one- and two-dimensional models compares well with data analyses. For the 11-year solar cycle, model simulations suggest a non-negligible ozone/temperature response compared to changes produced by anthropogenic perturbations in the stratosphere. There is no sufficient long-term atmospheric dataset to establish a statistically significant correlation with the 11-year solar cycle. But in general, agreement between the observational analysis (for periods of one to two solar cycles) and model simulations of the long-term solar variability effect is unsatisfactory.

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