Transformation of potential medical demand in China: A system dynamics simulation model

OBJECTIVES The increasing of potential medical demand in China has threatened the health of the population, the medical equity, accessibility to medical services, and has impeded the development of Chinese health delivery system. This study aims to understand the mechanism of the increasing potential medical demand and find some solutions. METHODS We constructed a system dynamics model to analyze and simulate this problem, to predict the influences of health policies on the actual percentage of patients not seeking medical care (adjusting the quantity structure of hospitals and community health systems (CHSs), adjusting outpatient prices, and adjusting the level of health insurance). RESULTS Decreasing the number of hospitals, increasing the number of CHSs, and raising the proportion of health insurance compensation would effectively increase the transformation of potential medical demand. But currently, changes of the outpatient prices didn't play a role in the transformation of potential medical demand. CONCLUSIONS Combined with validation analysis and model simulation, we suggest some possible solutions. The main factors causing potential medical demand are accessibility to medical services and proportion of health insurance compensation. Thus, adjusting the number of hospitals and CHSs and increasing the proportion of health insurance compensation should decrease the actual percentage of patients not seeking medical care and accelerate the transformation of potential medical demand, which deserved being concerned in policymaking.

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