Proposed Approach for Estimating Launch Vehicle Explosive Risk

*† The explosive risk for launch vehicles is relatively small, but a crucial factor for sizing a crewed abort system. This study proposes an assessment process for explosive risk and expected blast yields that can be used with Probabilistic Risk Assessment tools like SAPHIRE. A fault tree for propulsion system explosive risk is developed along with the corresponding explosive yield models for the proposed faults. The Apollo launch system is used as an example to illustrate this type of approach. The proposed explosive risk yield is quantified by a probability density function for one type of fault.