Using Forecasts of Future Incidents to Evaluate Future ATM System Designs

This paper describes and illustrates the use of a general methodology for knowledge elicitation to enable better prediction of the human factors implications of future system designs. Specifically, this approach involves the following steps:1. Identifying critical factors that could influence performance in the future system.2. Using this list of factors to predict incidents that could plausibly arise in the future system.3. Designing realistic, detailed incident reports based on these predicted incidents.4. Asking a group of experienced practitioners representing different perspectives in the current system to act as a review team by evaluating a reported incident and identifying the important issues and implications it raises.5. Using the insights generated by the discussions of the review team to provide guidance in making decisions about the implementation of the future system.To illustrate the use of this methodology, a scenario was developed. This scenario was based on experiences with the expanded ...