The Design Space Root Finding method for efficient risk optimization by simulation

Abstract Reliability-Based Design Optimization (RBDO) is computationally expensive due to the nested optimization and reliability loops. Several shortcuts have been proposed in the literature to solve RBDO problems. However, these shortcuts only apply when failure probability is a design constraint. When failure probabilities are incorporated in the objective function, such as in total life-cycle cost or risk optimization, no shortcuts were available to this date, to the best of the authors knowledge. In this paper, a novel method is proposed for the solution of risk optimization problems. Risk optimization allows one to address the apparently conflicting goals of safety and economy in structural design. In the conventional solution of risk optimization by Monte Carlo simulation, information concerning limit state function behavior over the design space is usually disregarded. The method proposed herein consists in finding the roots of the limit state function in the design space, for all Monte Carlo samples of random variables. The proposed method is compared to the usual method in application to one and n-dimensional optimization problems, considering various degrees of limit state and cost function nonlinearities. Results show that the proposed method is almost twenty times more efficient than the usual method, when applied to one-dimensional problems. Efficiency is reduced for higher dimensional problems, but the proposed method is still at least two times more efficient than the usual method for twenty design variables. As the efficiency of the proposed method for higher-dimensional problems is directly related to derivative evaluations, further investigation is necessary to improve its efficiency in application to multi-dimensional problems.

[1]  André T. Beck,et al.  Global structural optimization considering expected consequences of failure and using ANN surrogates , 2013 .

[2]  Lei Jiang,et al.  A sequential approximate programming strategy for performance-measure-based probabilistic structural design optimization , 2008 .

[3]  Raphael T. Haftka,et al.  Design Under Uncertainty Using Monte Carlo Simulation and Probabilistic Sufficiency Factor , 2003, DAC 2003.

[4]  C. G. Broyden The Convergence of a Class of Double-rank Minimization Algorithms 1. General Considerations , 1970 .

[5]  André T. Beck,et al.  A comparison of deterministic‚ reliability-based and risk-based structural optimization under uncertainty , 2012 .

[6]  John A. Nelder,et al.  A Simplex Method for Function Minimization , 1965, Comput. J..

[7]  Alaa Chateauneuf,et al.  Benchmark study of numerical methods for reliability-based design optimization , 2010 .

[8]  Kyung K. Choi,et al.  A new response surface methodology for reliability-based design optimization , 2004 .

[9]  Gerhart I. Schuëller,et al.  Design of maintenance schedules for fatigue-prone metallic components using reliability-based optimization , 2010 .

[10]  Dan M. Frangopol,et al.  Life-cycle reliability-based optimization of civil and aerospace structures , 2003 .

[11]  Roberto Mínguez,et al.  Reliability-based optimization in engineering using decomposition techniques and FORMS , 2009 .

[12]  L. Watson,et al.  An inverse-measure-based unilevel architecture for reliability-based design optimization , 2007 .

[13]  Xiaoping Du,et al.  Sequential Optimization and Reliability Assessment Method for Efficient Probabilistic Design , 2004, DAC 2002.

[14]  J. Beck,et al.  Estimation of Small Failure Probabilities in High Dimensions by Subset Simulation , 2001 .

[15]  Jianye Ching,et al.  Transforming reliability limit-state constraints into deterministic limit-state constraints , 2008 .

[16]  R. Rackwitz,et al.  Time-variant reliability-oriented structural optimization and a renewal model for life-cycle costing , 2004 .

[17]  John Dalsgaard Sørensen,et al.  Reliability-Based Optimization in Structural Engineering , 1994 .

[18]  André T. Beck,et al.  A comparison between robust and risk-based optimization under uncertainty , 2015 .

[19]  M. J. Box A Comparison of Several Current Optimization Methods, and the use of Transformations in Constrained Problems , 1966, Comput. J..

[20]  André T. Beck,et al.  RISK OPTIMIZATION OF A STEEL FRAME COMMUNICATIONS TOWER SUBJECT TO TORNADO WINDS , 2008 .

[21]  G. Cheng,et al.  A sequential approximate programming strategy for reliability-based structural optimization , 2006 .

[22]  Ross B. Corotis,et al.  Failure cost design of structural systems , 1988 .

[23]  M. Valdebenito,et al.  Reliability-based optimization of stochastic systems using line search , 2009 .

[24]  Terje Haukaas,et al.  Optimal inspection planning for onshore pipelines subject to external corrosion , 2013, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[25]  R. Fletcher,et al.  A New Approach to Variable Metric Algorithms , 1970, Comput. J..

[26]  Dan M. Frangopol,et al.  Optimization of lifetime maintenance strategies for deteriorating structures considering probabilities of violating safety, condition, and cost thresholds , 2006 .

[27]  Gerhart I. Schuëller,et al.  A survey on approaches for reliability-based optimization , 2010 .

[28]  Jeffrey C. Lagarias,et al.  Convergence Properties of the Nelder-Mead Simplex Method in Low Dimensions , 1998, SIAM J. Optim..

[29]  Terje Haukaas,et al.  Unified reliability and design optimization for earthquake engineering , 2008 .

[30]  M. Stein Large sample properties of simulations using latin hypercube sampling , 1987 .

[31]  Fred Moses,et al.  Cost and safety optimization of structural design specifications , 2001, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[32]  R. Rackwitz,et al.  A benchmark study on importance sampling techniques in structural reliability , 1993 .

[33]  Robert E. Melchers,et al.  Structural Reliability: Analysis and Prediction , 1987 .

[34]  André T. Beck,et al.  Reliability-based design optimization strategies based on FORM: a review , 2012 .

[35]  Niels C. Lind,et al.  Methods of structural safety , 2006 .

[36]  D. Goldfarb A family of variable-metric methods derived by variational means , 1970 .

[37]  James L. Beck,et al.  An efficient framework for optimal robust stochastic system design using stochastic simulation , 2008 .

[38]  Kyung K. Choi,et al.  A NEW STUDY ON RELIABILITY-BASED DESIGN OPTIMIZATION , 1999 .

[39]  Karl Breitung,et al.  Asymptotic importance sampling , 1993 .