A generalized logistic model of individual tree mortality for aspen, white spruce, and lodgepole pine in Alberta mixedwood forests

A generalized logistic model of individual tree mortality was developed for trembling aspen ( Populus tremuloides Michx.), white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss), and lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud. var. latifolia Engelm.) in Alberta boreal mixedwood forests based on an empirical data base of permanent sample plots. The model is suitable for observations from unequal remeasurement intervals. The maximum likelihood estimation was used to fit the model, the likelihood ratio test was combined with our understanding of mortality process to select the important variables, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test was conducted to evaluate the fit. The fitted model predicts the survival probability of an individual tree based on the tree diameter at breast height, annual diameter incre- ment, stand basal area, species composition, and site productivity. Resume : Un modele logistique generalise de mortalite des tiges individuelles a ete developpe pour le peuplier faux- tremble (Populus tremuloides Michx.), l'epinette blanche (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) et le pin lodgepole (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud. var. latifolia Engelm.) dans les forets mixtes boreales de l'Alberta, a l'aide d'une base de donnees empiriques provenant de parcelles permanentes. L'estimation du maximum de vraisemblance a ete utilisee pour ajuster le modele. Le test du ratio de vraisemblance a ete combine a notre comprehension du processus de mortalite pour choisir les variables importantes et le test de qualite de l'ajustement de Hosmer-Lemeshow a ete applique pour evaluer la qualite de l'ajustement du modele. Le modele ajuste predit la probabilite de survie d'un arbre sur la base du

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