Agent-Based Modeling Framework for Electric Vehicle Adoption Transition in Indonesia

Currently, the adoption of electric vehicles (EV) draws much attention, as the environmental issue of reducing carbon emission is increasing worldwide. However, different countries face different challenges during this transition, particularly developing countries. This research aims to create a framework for the transition to EV in Indonesia through Agent-Based Modeling (ABM). The framework is used as the conceptual design for ABM to investigate the effect of agents’ decision-making processes at the microlevel into the number of adopted EV at the macrolevel. The cluster analysis is equipped to determine the agents’ characteristics based on the categories of the innovation adopters. There are 11 significant variables and four respondents’ clusters: innovators, early majority, late majority, and the uncategorized one. Moreover, Twitter data analytics are utilized to investigate the information engagement coefficient based on the agents’ location. The agents’ characteristics which emerged from this analysis framework will be used as the fundamental for investigating the effect of agents’ specific characteristics and their interaction through ABM for further research. It is expected that this framework will enable the discovery of which incentive scheme or critical technical features effectively increase the uptake of EV according to the agents’ specific characteristics.

[1]  Marko P. Hekkert,et al.  Business strategies of incumbents in the market for electric vehicles: opportunities and incentives for sustainable innovation , 2015 .

[2]  Gloria E. Phillips-Wren,et al.  Impact of Social Media and Web 2.0 on Decision-Making , 2011, J. Decis. Syst..

[3]  M. Macy,et al.  FROM FACTORS TO ACTORS: Computational Sociology and Agent-Based Modeling , 2002 .

[4]  Andrew Reeson,et al.  Agent‐based modeling in ecological economics , 2010, Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences.

[5]  Ndaona Chokani,et al.  User behaviour and electric vehicle charging infrastructure: An agent-based model assessment , 2019, Applied Energy.

[6]  Nicoletta Corrocher,et al.  Lock-in and path dependence: an evolutionary approach to eco-innovations , 2014 .

[7]  Marcel Veenswijk,et al.  Managing public–private megaprojects: Paradoxes, complexity, and project design , 2008 .

[8]  Rita Komaladewi A Review of Consumer Purchase Decision on Low Cost Green Car in West Java, Indonesia , 2017 .

[9]  Vijay Arya,et al.  An agent-based electric vehicle ecosystem model: San Francisco case study , 2016 .

[10]  Chunfu Shao,et al.  Investigating the factors influencing the uptake of electric vehicles in Beijing, China: Statistical and spatial perspectives , 2019, Journal of Cleaner Production.

[11]  M. Noori,et al.  Development of an agent-based model for regional market penetration projections of electric vehicles in the United States , 2016 .

[12]  M. Mckelvey,et al.  Building a sectoral innovation system for new energy vehicles in Hangzhou, China: Insights from evolutionary economics and strategic niche management , 2019, Journal of Cleaner Production.

[13]  F. Geels Technological transitions as evolutionary reconfiguration processes: a multi-level perspective and a case-study , 2002 .

[14]  B. Carlsson,et al.  On the nature, function and composition of technological systems , 1991 .

[15]  Amela Ajanovic,et al.  Dissemination of electric vehicles in urban areas: Major factors for success , 2016 .

[16]  Xiaoling Zhang,et al.  Evolving theories of eco-innovation: A systematic review , 2019, Sustainable Production and Consumption.

[17]  Agent-Based Simulations of Smallholder Decision-Making in Land Use Change/Cover (LUCC) Problem , 2017 .

[18]  Marko P. Hekkert,et al.  Perceived uncertainties regarding socio-technological transformations: towards a framework , 2006 .

[19]  Paul H. Barnes,et al.  Implementation of good governance by regional governments in Indonesia : the challenges , 2008 .

[20]  Adrian Smith,et al.  Innovation studies and sustainability transitions: The allure of the multi-level perspective and its challenges , 2010 .