Analysing the feasibility of powering the Americas with renewable energy and inter-regional grid interconnections by 2030

Abstract The Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Agreement, as the two biggest climate action initiatives, address the need to shift towards a fully sustainable energy system. The deployment of renewable energy, especially solar and wind power, decreases carbon dioxide emissions, but presents issues of resource intermittency. In this study, a cost-optimised 100% renewable energy based system is analysed and quantified for the Americas for the reference year 2030 using high spatially and temporally resolved weather data. Several scenarios have been applied, from a decentralised power system towards a fully centralised and interconnected system, taking into account a mix of renewable energy, energy storage and transmission networks. This research aims to evaluate the benefits of an interconnected energy system for the Americas. The levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) is between 48.8 and 59.0 €/MWh depending on the chosen scenario. The results show that the LCOE and total annualised cost drop by 14% and 15%, respectively, in a centralised power system. The optimised utilisation of transmission grids leads to less energy storage requirement. Sector coupling brings further benefits by reducing additional 4% of LCOE, where electricity demand for power, seawater desalination and non-energetic industrial gas sectors have been supplied. A comparison between the interconnected Americas and North and South America individually shows a reduction of 1.6% and 4.0% for the total annual system cost and LCOE. Although the cost of the energy system decreased due to wide grid interconnection, substantial benefits have not been achieved as reported earlier for a Pan-American energy system. A scenario with synthetic natural gas (SNG) trading through a liquefied natural gas value chain has also been presented. The results suggest that local SNG production cost in the assumed consumption centre is almost the same as the cost of imported SNG.

[1]  Sonja Simon,et al.  100% Renewable Energy Supply for Brazil—The Role of Sector Coupling and Regional Development , 2017 .

[2]  Florian Steinke,et al.  Transmission grid extensions for the integration of variable renewable energies in Europe: Who benefits where? , 2012 .

[3]  W. Beckman,et al.  Solar Engineering of Thermal Processes , 1985 .

[4]  Mark Z. Jacobson,et al.  A Monte Carlo approach to generator portfolio planning and carbon emissions assessments of systems with large penetrations of variable renewables. , 2011 .

[5]  Martin Greiner,et al.  Transmission needs across a fully renewable European power system , 2013, 1306.1079.

[6]  W. Beckman,et al.  Solar Engineering of Thermal Processes: Duffie/Solar Engineering 4e , 2013 .

[7]  K. Blok,et al.  Response to ‘Burden of proof: A comprehensive review of the feasibility of 100% renewable-electricity systems’ , 2017, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews.

[8]  Christian Breyer,et al.  Electricity system based on 100% renewable energy for India and SAARC , 2017, PloS one.

[9]  Bo Tranberg,et al.  Flow-based nodal cost allocation in a heterogeneous highly renewable European electricity network , 2018, 1801.10451.

[10]  Andrew Blakers,et al.  Asia Pacific Super Grid - Solar electricity generation, storage and distribution , 2012 .

[11]  Mark Z. Jacobson,et al.  Examining the feasibility of converting New York State's all-purpose energy infrastructure to one using wind, water, and sunlight , 2013 .

[12]  Christian Breyer,et al.  Long term load projection in high resolution for all countries globally , 2019, International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems.

[13]  Michael Dittmar,et al.  Nuclear energy: Status and future limitations , 2012 .

[14]  Mark Z. Jacobson,et al.  Flexibility mechanisms and pathways to a highly renewable US electricity future , 2016 .

[15]  C. Breyer,et al.  Sustainability guardrails for energy scenarios of the global energy transition , 2018, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews.

[16]  Paula Ferreira,et al.  Planning for a renewable future in the Brazilian power system , 2018, Energy.

[17]  Adam Hawkes,et al.  The future cost of electrical energy storage based on experience rates , 2017, Nature Energy.

[18]  E. Dunlop,et al.  Geographical variation of the conversion efficiency of crystalline silicon photovoltaic modules in Europe , 2008 .

[19]  C. Breyer,et al.  Combining Floating Solar Photovoltaic Power Plants and Hydropower Reservoirs: A Virtual Battery of Great Global Potential , 2018, Energy Procedia.

[20]  Christian Breyer,et al.  Energy Storage in Global and Transcontinental Energy Scenarios: A Critical Review☆ , 2016 .

[21]  Iris Grossmann,et al.  Solar electricity generation across large geographic areas, Part II: A Pan-American energy system based on solar , 2014 .

[22]  J. Mason,et al.  The technical, geographical, and economic feasibility for solar energy to supply the energy needs of the US , 2009 .

[23]  Andrew Swingler,et al.  Initial perspective on a 100% renewable electricity supply for Prince Edward Island , 2018 .

[24]  Amory B. Lovins,et al.  Reliably integrating variable renewables: Moving grid flexibility resources from models to results , 2017 .

[25]  Mark Z. Jacobson,et al.  Renewable build-up pathways for the US: Generation costs are not system costs , 2015 .

[26]  C. J. Franco,et al.  Long-term effects of 100% renewable generation on the Colombian power market , 2018, Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments.

[27]  M. Vass.  Renewable energies cannot compete with forest carbon sequestration to cost-efficiently meet the EU carbon target for 2050 , 2017 .

[28]  Willett Kempton,et al.  Cost-minimized combinations of wind power, solar power and electrochemical storage, powering the grid up to 99.9% of the time , 2013 .

[29]  C. Breyer,et al.  Global overview on grid‐parity , 2013 .

[30]  C. Breyer,et al.  Assessment of geological resource potential for compressed air energy storage in global electricity supply , 2018, Energy Conversion and Management.

[31]  Christian Breyer,et al.  PV and Wind Power – Complementary Technologies , 2011 .

[32]  Dmitrii Bogdanov,et al.  A Techno-Economic Study of an Entirely Renewable Energy-Based Power Supply for North America for 2030 Conditions , 2017 .

[33]  Christian Breyer,et al.  Structural changes of global power generation capacity towards sustainability and the risk of stranded investments supported by a sustainability indicator , 2017 .

[34]  Stephan Schmid,et al.  energy [r]evolution - A sustainable world energy outlook , 2007 .

[35]  B. Nykvist,et al.  Rapidly falling costs of battery packs for electric vehicles , 2015 .

[36]  Keywan Riahi,et al.  The impact of near-term climate policy choices on technology and emission transition pathways , 2015 .

[37]  Iris Grossmann,et al.  Solar electricity supply isolines of generation capacity and storage , 2015, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[38]  Mark Z. Jacobson,et al.  100% clean and renewable wind, water, and sunlight (WWS) all-sector energy roadmaps for the 50 United States , 2015 .

[39]  Iris Grossmann,et al.  Distributed solar electricity generation across large geographic areas, Part I: A method to optimize site selection, generation and storage , 2013 .

[40]  Rodrigo Palma-Behnke,et al.  A multi-service approach for planning the optimal mix of energy storage technologies in a fully-renewable power supply , 2018, Energy Conversion and Management.

[41]  Francis Gassert,et al.  Aqueduct Water Stress Projections: Decadal Projections of Water Supply and Demand Using CMIP5 GCMs , 2015 .

[42]  Ayobami Solomon Oyewo,et al.  Solar photovoltaics demand for the global energy transition in the power sector , 2018 .

[43]  T. Brown,et al.  Synergies of sector coupling and transmission reinforcement in a cost-optimised, highly renewable European energy system , 2018, Energy.

[44]  Christian Breyer,et al.  Techno-economic assessment of CO2 direct air capture plants , 2019, Journal of Cleaner Production.

[45]  Christian Breyer,et al.  Can Australia Power the Energy-Hungry Asia with Renewable Energy? , 2017 .

[46]  Christian Breyer,et al.  Hydro, wind and solar power as a base for a 100% renewable energy supply for South and Central America , 2017, PloS one.

[47]  Patrícia Pereira da Silva,et al.  Evaluating the market splitting determinants: evidence from the Iberian spot electricity prices , 2015 .

[48]  Mark Z. Jacobson,et al.  Supplementary Information for The Carbon Abatement Potential of High Penetration Intermittent Renewables , 2011 .

[49]  Brian Vad Mathiesen,et al.  Simulation versus Optimisation: Theoretical Positions in Energy System Modelling , 2017 .

[50]  Paulina Jaramillo,et al.  Evaluation of a proposal for reliable low-cost grid power with 100% wind, water, and solar , 2017, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[51]  Mark Z. Jacobson,et al.  A 100% wind, water, sunlight (WWS) all-sector energy plan for Washington State , 2016 .

[52]  Dmitrii Bogdanov,et al.  Hydropower and Power-to-gas Storage Options: The Brazilian Energy System Case , 2016 .

[53]  Gregor Czisch,et al.  Szenarien zur zukünftigen Stromversorgung, kostenoptimierte Variationen zur Versorgung Europas und seiner Nachbarn mit Strom aus erneuerbaren Energien , 2006 .

[54]  Mark Z. Jacobson,et al.  A roadmap for repowering California for all purposes with wind, water, and sunlight , 2014 .

[55]  Christian Breyer,et al.  North-East Asian Super Grid for 100% renewable energy supply: Optimal mix of energy technologies for electricity, gas and heat supply options , 2016 .

[56]  M. A. Cameron,et al.  Low-cost solution to the grid reliability problem with 100% penetration of intermittent wind, water, and solar for all purposes , 2015, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[57]  Mycle Schneider,et al.  World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2013 , 2013 .

[58]  Christian Breyer,et al.  Integrated renewable energy based power system for Europe, Eurasia and MENA regions , 2016, 2016 International Energy and Sustainability Conference (IESC).

[59]  Tom Brown,et al.  Optimal heterogeneity in a simplified highly renewable European electricity system , 2017, 1706.00463.

[60]  Christian Breyer,et al.  Local cost of seawater RO desalination based on solar PV and wind energy: A global estimate , 2016 .

[61]  Christian Breyer,et al.  North-East Asian Super Grid: Renewable energy mix and economics , 2015 .

[62]  Daniel M. Kammen,et al.  Energy storage deployment and innovation for the clean energy transition , 2017, Nature Energy.

[63]  Sven Teske,et al.  High renewable energy penetration scenarios and their implications for urban energy and transport systems , 2018 .

[64]  Christian Breyer,et al.  On the role of solar photovoltaics in global energy transition scenarios , 2016 .