A decision-analytic methodology for weapon systems investment

Since weapon systems are worth millions of dollars, it is important that the investment decision turns out right the first time. However, current research work in the literature has paid little attention to this issue. Therefore, it is necessary to have an aid in support of defence planners for making this sophisticated investment decision. The central theme of this thesis is to develop that decision aid. This thesis embodies the development of a decision-analytic methodology for use by defence planners involved in weapon systems investments under the Planning-Programming-Budgeting System (PPBS). The constructive approach was adopted as a research methodology used to conduct this study. Four major decision problems were investigated: force structure planning, weapon systems evaluation, weapon systems selection, and resource allocation. The study also investigated how a defence community really makes investment decisions from human behavioural aspects. The proposed methodology consists of five analytic approaches. The static approach is used to determine appropriate functional types of weapon systems for a necessary defence capability. The multiple criteria approach is employed to propose the feasible alternatives for further evaluation. The economic approach is utilized to evaluate promising alternatives. The comparison approach is used to select the best alternative. The optimal approach is used to allocate defence resources to various weapon systems being planned. Through the validation of the methodology, it has been shown that the methodology is adequate in supporting the investment decision making. Finally, the thesis concluded with three suggestions for future work: the development of Operation Analysis Models, the development of a Decision Support System, and the combination of Operations Research and Artificial Intelligence for improving the quality of decision making.