Probabilistic assessment of fill slope stability

Conventional slope stability analyses have commonly been based on a deterministic approach. Various deterministic-based analysis methods developed to date can assess the stability of a given slope using the factor of safety. However, it has been strongly debated that the use of only the factor of safety does not explicitly account for the uncertainties in soil parameters. In light of this, this paper uses the finite element limit analysis methods and conducts a probabilistic-based analysis of fill slope for the specific case of two-layered undrained clay. Results obtained show that slopes with large variations in soil properties may present an extremely high risk of a slope failure and this cannot be known if only a deterministic-based analysis is performed. Thus, this shows that more soil investigations can be performed to reduce the variation of the soil properties thereby reducing the risk of a slope failure. Different probabilistic charts based on different coefficients of variation in soil properties are provided in this paper. This study demonstrates that the finite element limit analysis methods can be applied in a probabilistic analysis.

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