A real time scheme for the prediction of forecast skill

Abstract During the winter of 1988/89, a real-time experimental scheme to predict skill of the ECMWF operational forecast was devised. The scheme was based on statistical relations between skill scores (the predictands) and a number of predictors including consistency between consecutive forecasts, amplitude of very short-range forecast errors, and indices of large-scale regime transitions. The results of the experiment are assessed with particular attention to a period with large variations in the skill of the operational forecast.