Gasoline-fueled hybrid vs. conventional vehicle emissions and fuel economy.

This paper addresses the relative fuel economy and emissions behavior, both measured and modeled, of technically comparable, contemporary hybrid and conventional vehicles fueled by gasoline, in terms of different driving cycles. Criteria pollutants (hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, and nitrogen oxides) are discussed, and the potential emissions benefits of designing hybrids for grid connection are briefly considered. In 1997, Toyota estimated that their grid-independent hybrid vehicle would obtain twice the fuel economy of a comparable conventional vehicle on the Japan 10/15 mode driving cycle. This initial result, as well as the fuel economy level (66 mpg), made its way into the U.S. press. Criteria emissions amounting to one-tenth of Japanese standards were cited, and some have interpreted these results to suggest that the grid-independent hybrid can reduce criteria emissions in the U.S. more sharply than can a conventional gasoline vehicle. This paper shows that the potential of contemporary grid-independent hybrid vehicle technology for reducing emissions and fuel consumption under U.S. driving conditions is less than some have inferred. The importance (and difficulty) of doing test and model assessments with comparable driving cycles, comparable emissions control technology, and comparable performance capabilities is emphasized. Compared with comparable-technology conventional vehicles, grid-independent hybrids appear to have no clear criteria pollutant benefits (or disbenefits). (Such benefits are clearly possible with grid-connectable hybrids operating in zero emissions mode.) However, significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions (i.e., fuel consumption) are possible with hybrid vehicles when they are used to best advantage.