Emissions of air pollutants implied by global long-term energy scenarios

This report presents a methodology to link national medium-term (up to 2030) with global long-term (beyond 2050) emission scenarios. Such a linkage is relevant for estimating impacts of global long-term climate change scenarios on local and regional air pollution in the next few decades. We present a methodology for the linkage that combines results from two models developed at IIASA: the GAINS air pollution model and the MESSAGE model of long-term energy system dynamics. We calculate for energy scenarios developed by the MESSAGE model future emissions of air pollutants (SO2, NOx, PM, BC/OC, NH3, VOC and CO), taking into account air pollution control legislation that is in place in the various countries. Example results are provided for the middle-of-the-road B2 baseline scenario. Under the B2 scenario global emissions of sulfur, nitrogen oxides and carbon monoxide decline continuously between 2000 and 2100, largely due to widespread implementation of air pollution control technologies. On the other hand, in Asian developing countries sulfur emissions will increase significantly up to 2030 due to the strong increase in coal use for power generation. In contrast, a climate stabilization scenario highlights synergies from the co-control of air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions. Finally, the role of shipping emissions is discussed within the global context, and resulting emission projections are compared with other analyses.

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