The use of Markov chain Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis to support a Public Health Goal for perchloroethylene.

The current Public Health Goal (PHG) for perchloroethylene (PCE) was derived using upper-bound estimates of fractional PCE metabolism in humans. These estimates were in part obtained from a published evaluation of the uncertainty and variability in human PCE metabolism conducted using a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model in a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis; however, the data used in that analysis were limited to post-exposure PCE blood and exhaled air concentrations from a single study. A more recent study [Volkel, W., Friedewald, M., Lederer, E., Pahler, A., Parker, J., Dekant, W., 1998. Biotransformation of perchloroethene: dose-dependent excretion of trichloroacetic acid, dichloroacetic acid, and N-acetyl-S-(trichlorovinyl)-l-cysteine in rats and humans after inhalation. Toxicol. Appl. Pharmacol. 153(1), 20-27.] provides data on blood concentrations of PCE and its major metabolite, trichloroacetic acid (TCA), and urinary excretion of TCA following exposure of human subjects to lower concentrations of PCE (10-40ppm) than in previous studies. In the present effort, a new MCMC analysis was performed that focused on data from this study along with two others [Fernandez, J., Guberan, E., Caperos, J., 1976. Experimental human exposures to tetrachloroethylene vapor and elimination in breath after inhalation. Am. Ind. Hyg. Assoc. J. 37, 143-150; Monster, A., Boersma, G., Steenweg, H., 1979. Kinetics of tetrachloroethylene in volunteers; influence of exposure concentration and work load. Int. Arch. Occup. Environ. Health 42, 303-309.] providing data on PCE blood concentrations and urinary excretion of TCA. To provide an accurate prediction of TCA kinetics, the PBPK model used here includes a description of the metabolism of PCE to TCA in both the liver and kidney. The resulting upper 95th percentile estimates of fraction of PCE metabolized by inhalation and oral routes were 2.1 and 5.2%, respectively, compared to 58 and 79% used in the derivation of the PHG.

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