Issues in modeling induced technological change in energy, environmental, and climate policy

This paper addresses the objective of including Induced Technological Change (ITC) in research and policy models of energy, environment, and climate change. Theoretical foundations, fundamentals, and current methodologies for ITC models are reviewed. In addition, limitations and possible extensions to ITC models are explored. Current approaches to energy-environmental modeling that neglect technological characteristics such as heterogeneity, uncertainty, and path-dependence are likely to underestimate both the impact and the lags in the effectiveness of policy options.

[1]  Jacob Schmookler,et al.  Invention and Economic Growth , 1967 .

[2]  R. Nelson Recent Evolutionary Theorizing about Economic Change , 2005, Technology, Institutions, and Economic Growth.

[3]  Dale W. Jorgenson,et al.  Chapter 27 – Energy, The Environment, and Economic Growth , 1993 .

[4]  Nathan Rosenberg,et al.  Perspectives on Technology. , 1978 .

[5]  L. Goulder,et al.  Optimal Co2 Abatement in the Presence of Induced Technological Change , 1998 .

[6]  G. Grossman,et al.  Innovation and growth in the global economy , 1993 .

[7]  Z. Griliches The Search for R&D Spillovers , 1991 .

[8]  P. Romer Endogenous Technological Change , 1989, Journal of Political Economy.

[9]  G. Briefs Business cycles , 1949 .

[10]  J. Edmonds,et al.  Economic and environmental choices in the stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentrations , 1996, Nature.

[11]  D. Gregori,et al.  Inside the Black Box: Technology and Economics , 1984 .

[12]  P. David,et al.  Convergence and deferred catch-up. Productivity leadership and the waning of American exceptionalism , 1994 .

[13]  Elhanan Helpman,et al.  Endogenous Innovation in the Theory of Growth , 1993 .

[14]  Jan Fagerberg,et al.  Technology and International Differences in Growth Rates , 1994 .

[15]  Joel Mokyr,et al.  The Lever of Riches: Technological Creativity and Economic Progress , 1991 .

[16]  R. Tol,et al.  The Optimal Timing of Greenhouse Gas Emission Abatement, Individual Rationality and Intergenerational Equity , 1998 .

[17]  Araújo,et al.  An Evolutionary theory of economic change , 1983 .

[18]  Nathan Rosenberg,et al.  Exploring the Black Box: Technology, Economics, and History , 1994 .

[19]  W. Nordhaus Managing the Global Commons: The Economics of Climate Change , 1994 .

[20]  Y. Hayami,et al.  Agricultural Development: An International Perspective. , 1972 .

[21]  D. North Competing Technologies , Increasing Returns , and Lock-In by Historical Events , 1994 .

[22]  L. Lau,et al.  The role of human capital in the economic growth of the East Asian industrialized countries , 1995 .

[23]  P. Mohnen The Econometric Approach to R&D Externalities , 1994 .

[24]  S. Winter,et al.  An evolutionary theory of economic change , 1983 .

[25]  James A. Roumasset,et al.  Endogenous Substitution among Energy Resources and Global Warming , 1997, Journal of Political Economy.

[26]  Nebojsa Nakicenovic,et al.  Climate Change: Integrating Science, Economics, and Policy , 1996 .

[27]  Richard G. Newell,et al.  Environmental policy and technological change: The effects of economic incentives and direct regulation on energy-saving innovation , 1997 .

[28]  N. Nakicenovic Technological change and learning , 1996 .

[29]  Michael Grubb,et al.  The economics of changing course : Implications of adaptability and inertia for optimal climate policy , 1995 .

[30]  Evangelos Ioannidis,et al.  The Impact of R&D and Technology Diffusion on Productivity Growth: Evidence for 10 OECD Countries in the 1970s and 1980s , 1996 .

[31]  Michael Grubb,et al.  Technologies, energy systems and the timing of CO2 emissions abatement: An overview of economic issues , 1997 .

[32]  D. Jorgenson Technology in growth theory , 1996 .

[33]  C. I. Jones,et al.  Too Much of a Good Thing? The Economics of Investment in R&D , 1999 .

[34]  K. Arrow Economic Welfare and the Allocation of Resources for Invention , 1962 .

[35]  Joel Mokyr,et al.  The Lever of Riches: Technological Creativity and Economic Progress. , 1991 .

[36]  Vernon W. Ruttan,et al.  SOURCES OF TECHNICAL CHANGE: INDUCED INNOVATION, EVOLUTIONARY THEORY AND PATH DEPENDENCE , 1996 .