The Adaptive Decision-Maker : Effort and Accuracy in Choice

Abstract : Research has shown that the strategies people use to evaluate and choose among a set of multiattribute alternatives are highly sensitive to a variety of task and context variables. This chapter reviews a program of research concerned with better understanding how decision making behavior is contingent upon properties of the decision task. The perspective adopted is that strategy selection is a function of both costs, primarily the effort required to use a decision Rule, and benefits, primarily the ability of a strategy to select the best alternative. A series of experiments involving both Monte-Carlo simulation and process-tracing techniques is reported that support the effort- accuracy framework. Unresolved issues of learning, bottom-up as well as top-down processing, and the role of incentives in strategy selection are then discussed. Finally, an implication of adaptive decision behavior for improving decisions by designing information displays which make effective processing easier is outlined.

[1]  H. Simon,et al.  A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice , 1955 .

[2]  A. Tversky.  Intransitivity of preferences. , 1969 .

[3]  Donald F. Dansereau,et al.  An information processing model of mental multiplication. , 1969 .

[4]  H. J. Einhorn.  The use of nonlinear, noncompensatory models in decision making. , 1970, Psychological bulletin.

[5]  P. Slovic,et al.  Reversals of preference between bids and choices in gambling decisions. , 1971 .

[6]  H. J. Einhorn.  Use of nonlinear, noncompensatory models as a function of task and amount of information , 1971 .

[7]  A. Tversky.  Elimination by aspects: A theory of choice. , 1972 .

[8]  Paul Slovic,et al.  From Shakespeare to Simon: speculations--and some evidence-- about man's ability to process information , 1972 .

[9]  G. Groen,et al.  A chronometric analysis of simple addition. , 1972 .

[10]  Allen Newell,et al.  Human Problem Solving. , 1973 .

[11]  Jacob Marschak,et al.  Decision Making: Economic Aspects (1968) , 1974 .

[12]  R. Hogarth,et al.  Unit weighting schemes for decision making , 1975 .

[13]  J. E. Russo,et al.  The Value of Unit Price Information , 1977 .

[14]  A. Tversky,et al.  Prospect Theory. An Analysis of Decision Making Under Risk , 1977 .

[15]  L. Beach,et al.  A Contingency Model for the Selection of Decision Strategies , 1978 .

[16]  J. Frank Yates,et al.  Evaluation of Partially Described Multiattribute Options , 1978 .

[17]  Gary McClelland,et al.  Equal versus Differential Weighting for Multiattribute Decisions: There are No Free Lunches , 1978 .

[18]  J. Edward Russo,et al.  Eye Fixations Can Save the World: a Critical Evaluation and a Comparison Between Eye Fixations and Other Information Processing Methodologies , 1978 .

[19]  Barbara Hayes-Roth,et al.  A Cognitive Model of Planning , 1979, Cogn. Sci..

[20]  H A Simon,et al.  The theory of learning by doing. , 1979, Psychological review.

[21]  J. Bettman.  An information processing theory of consumer choice , 1979 .

[22]  W. Thorngate.  Efficient decision heuristics. , 1980 .

[23]  B. Brehmer.  In one word: Not from experience. , 1980 .

[24]  R. Hogarth,et al.  BEHAVIORAL DECISION THEORY: PROCESSES OF JUDGMENT AND CHOICE , 1981 .

[25]  J. Payne,et al.  Adding Asymmetrically Dominated Alternatives: Violations of Regularity & the Similarity Hypothesis. , 1981 .

[26]  Hillel J. Einhorn,et al.  Judgment under uncertainty: Learning from experience and suboptimal rules in decision making , 1982 .

[27]  John W. Payne,et al.  Contingent decision behavior. , 1982 .

[28]  Ann L. Brown.  Learning, remembering, and understanding , 1982 .

[29]  N. Klein,et al.  Utility and decision strategies: a second look at the rational decision maker. , 1983, Organizational behavior and human performance.

[30]  Lee Roy Beach,et al.  Muddling through: a response to Yates and Goldstein. , 1983 .

[31]  B. Dosher,et al.  Strategies for multiattribute binary choice. , 1983, Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition.

[32]  D Zakay,et al.  Time pressure, training and decision effectiveness. , 1984, Ergonomics.

[33]  John W. Payne,et al.  Effort and Accuracy in Choice , 1985 .

[34]  R. Abelson.  Decision making and decision theory , 1985 .

[35]  P. Tetlock.  Accountability: The neglected social context of judgment and choice. , 1985 .

[36]  R. Hogarth,et al.  Decision Making under Ambiguity , 1986 .

[37]  John W. Payne,et al.  Cognitive Considerations in Designing Effective Labels for Presenting Risk Information , 1986 .

[38]  H. Arkes,et al.  Factors influencing the use of a decision rule in a probabilistic task , 1986 .

[39]  K. R. Hammond.  A Theoretically Based Review of Theory and Research in Judgment and Decision Making , 1986 .

[40]  L. Reder.  Strategy selection in question answering , 1987, Cognitive Psychology.

[41]  Justification processes in choice , 1987 .

[42]  H. J. Einhorn,et al.  Expression theory and the preference reversal phenomena. , 1987 .

[43]  Eric J. Johnson,et al.  Information displays and preference reversals , 1988 .

[44]  Eric J. Johnson,et al.  Adaptive Strategy Selection in Decision Making. , 1988 .

[45]  William F. Wright,et al.  Effects of extrinsic incentives on the quality of frequency assessments , 1988 .

[46]  John W. Payne,et al.  Monitoring Information Processing and Decisions: The Mouselab System , 1989 .

[47]  Eric J. Johnson,et al.  A componential analysis of cognitive effort in choice , 1990 .