Modeling in Medical Decision Making: A Bayesian Approach

Preface. PART I: METHODS. 1. Inference. Summary. Medical Diagnosis. Genetic Counseling. Estimating sensitivity and specificity. Chronic disease modeling. 2. Decision making. Summary. Foundations of expected utility theory. Measuring the value of avoiding a major stroke. Decision making in health care. Cost-effectiveness analyses in the mu SPPM. Statistical decision problems. 3. Simulation. Summary. Inference via simulation. Prediction and expected utility via simulation. Sensitivity analysis via simulation. Searching for strategies via simulation. Part II: CASE STUDIES. 4. Meta-analysis. Summary. Meta-analysis. Bayesian meta-analysis. Tamoxifen in early breast cancer. Combined studies with continuous and dichotomous responses. Migraine headache. 5. Decision trees. Summary. Axillary lymph node dissection in early breast cancer. A simple decision tree A more complete decision tree for ALND 6. Chronic disease modeling. Summary. Model overview. Natural history model. Modeling the effects of screening. Comparing screening schedules. Model critique. Optimizing screening schedule. References Index.