Short‐Term Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operations

L'accent mis sur les énergies renouvelables et les inquiétudes environnementales ont conduit, dans le monde entier, à un développement considérable des techniques éoliennes. Ces énergies, toutefois, ne sont pas sans poser des défis importants, liés au caractère intermittent et instable du vent. Les prévisions à court terme dans ce domaine sont d'une importance cruciale pour une mise en oeuvre fiable des systèmes d'exploitation. Cet article commence par une vue d'ensemble de l'état actuel des connaissances en matière de ressources d'énergie éolienne. Il passe ensuite en revue plusieurs modèles de prédiction à court terme des vitesses des vents comprenant, en particulier, les approches chronologiques traditionnelles, ainsi que certains modèles plus raffinés fondés sur les modèles du type spatio‐temporel. Nous poursuivons avec une discussion de la précision des prévisions, en mettant l'accent sur le choix de fonctions de perte appropriées. Quelques défis nouveaux liés aux changements soudains des vents et aux énergies éoliennes offshores sont aussi présentés.

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