Air Quality Forecasts in the Mid-Atlantic Region: Current Practice and Benchmark Skill

Abstract Air quality forecasts for the mid-Atlantic region (including the metropolitan areas of Baltimore, Washington, D.C., and Philadelphia) began in 1992. These forecasts were issued to the public beginning in 1995 and predict daily peak O3 concentrations (1-h average) within each metropolitan area. The purposes of the forecasts are to warn sensitive populations of concentrations that are in excess of the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for O3 and initiate voluntary control programs (“ozone action days”) designed to reduce pollution. Ozone is a photochemical pollutant whose concentrations reach a maximum during the summer months when day length is long and solar zenith angle low. Forecasts are issued daily from mid-May to mid-September at approximately 1900 UTC and are valid the following day. The forecasts are based on statistical models that use primarily meteorological predictors. Output from the statistical model is used as guidance and modified by the forecasters to account for featu...

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