A Bayesian Approach for Calibrating Risk Assessment Models

Monte Carlo simulation is a commonly used tool for constructing foodborne pathogen risk assessment models. Monte Carlo simulation enables an analyst to construct a probabilistic model of almost any desired complexity. It requires relatively little mathematical rigor and the models can be presented in an intuitive manner. It has some drawbacks, however. For example, Monte Carlo simulation requires that each parameter, as well as its uncertainty, be quantitatively described.

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