Beyond ESPREssO - Integrative risk assessment 2025 synergies and gaps in climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction

Abstract Climate change including the more frequent occurrence and increased intensity of extreme climate events are important drivers of disaster events. This causality is accompanied by the fact that long-term impacts of climate change are connected with a high-level of uncertainty: complex interactions, feedback loops and underlying nonlinear effects that describe the consequences in this dynamic context. Special modelling approaches are required to increase understanding of these connections with climate change and related global issues, like environmental, social, economic and political matters. Resilience is a concept that can be used when tackling climate change impacts and decrease vulnerabilities. The holistic concept goes parallel with the understanding of “managing risks instead of managing disasters”! This contribution elaborates now this line of thought and characterizes a risk-oriented modelling and design-oriented perspective. We present overviews on climate change adaptation (CCA) and disaster risk reduction (DRR), respectively, and the related frameworks and methods. Finally, we consider the links between the ESPREssO project with the PLACARD experience as coordination action. Similarities and differences are characterized in detail. Based on this specific comparison, we propose a solution-oriented approach which might overcome the distinctions regarding the different approaches of the projects towards a transformational resilience management perspective, summarizing synergies and gaps as an example for integrative risk assessment beyond ESPREssO. We conclude with a comprehensive framework based on the 5 priority areas (referred as “mission”, terminology introduced in the Horizon Europe Framework) included in the final document of ESPREssO, which could be seen as an example for an integrative risk management combining quantitative and qualitative approaches.