Bus Load Forecasting Based on Improved Grey Model and Meteorological Elements

In allusion to the features of bus load that its base load is small and liable to be influenced by the variation of meteorological elements,to fully take the influences of meteorological elements,day-types and small electricity resources on the forecasting of bus load into account,an improved grey model,in which the original data is processed by exponential weighting,is proposed.By means of taking the day-type and meteorological elements of the day to be forecasted as the foundation and fuzzifying these factors as the eigenvectors of the day,the optimal similar days are chosen as the original series for the improved grey model by grey relevancy to improve forecasting accuracy.Forecasting results of several 220kV bus loads with different bus load types in a certain provincial power grid show that the proposed method is effective and available.