Evolving judgments of terror risks: foresight, hindsight, and emotion: a reanalysis.

The authors examined the evolution of cognitive and emotional responses to terror risks for a nationally representative sample of Americans between late 2001 and late 2002. Respondents' risk judgments changed in ways consistent with their reported personal experiences. However, they did not recognize these changes, producing hindsight bias in memories for their judgments. An intensive debiasing procedure failed to restore a foresightful perspective. A fear-inducing manipulation increased risk estimates, whereas an anger-inducing manipulation reduced them-both in predictions (as previously observed) and in memories and judgments of past risks. Thus, priming emotions shaped not only perceptions of an abstract future but also perceptions of a concrete past. These results suggest how psychological research can help to ensure an informed public.

[1]  F. Bartlett,et al.  Remembering: A Study in Experimental and Social Psychology , 1932 .

[2]  Daniel Kahneman,et al.  Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability , 1973 .

[3]  A. Tversky,et al.  Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases , 1974, Science.

[4]  B. Fischhoff,et al.  Hindsight is not equal to foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty. , 1975 .

[5]  Baruch Fischhoff,et al.  Direct measures of availability and judgments of category frequency , 1977 .

[6]  B. Fischhoff,et al.  Judged frequency of lethal events , 1978 .

[7]  Paul Slovic,et al.  Newspaper Coverage of Causes of Death , 1979 .

[8]  B. Fischhoff,et al.  Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning and Memory , 1980 .

[9]  G. Bower.  Mood and memory. , 1981, The American psychologist.

[10]  W. Kip Viscusi,et al.  Adaptive Responses to Chemical Labeling: Are Workers Bayesian Decision Makers? , 1984 .

[11]  Craig A. Smith,et al.  Patterns of cognitive appraisal in emotion. , 1985, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[12]  W. Edwards,et al.  Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research , 1986 .

[13]  R. Keeney,et al.  Improving risk communication. , 1986, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[14]  M. F. Davies,et al.  Reduction of hindsight bias by restoration of foresight perspective: Effectiveness of foresight-encoding and hindsight-retrieval strategies. , 1987 .

[15]  P. Slovic.  Perception of risk. , 1987, Science.

[16]  Stephen J. Hoch,et al.  Outcome feedback: hindsight and information , 1989 .

[17]  Jay J.J. Christensen-Szalanski,et al.  The hindsight bias: A meta-analysis , 1991 .

[18]  V. Reyna,et al.  Fuzzy-trace theory and framing effects in choice: Gist extraction, truncation, and conversion , 1991 .

[19]  N. Sanders,et al.  Journal of behavioral decision making: "The need for contextual and technical knowledge in judgmental forecasting", 5 (1992) 39-52 , 1992 .

[20]  M. J. Quadrel,et al.  Risk perception and communication , 2008 .

[21]  Baruch Fischhoff,et al.  What forecasts (seem to) mean , 1994 .

[22]  Timothy D. Wilson,et al.  Mental contamination and mental correction: unwanted influences on judgments and evaluations. , 1994, Psychological bulletin.

[23]  A. Damasio.  Descartes' error: emotion, reason, and the human brain. avon books , 1994 .

[24]  G. Loewenstein,et al.  A Bias in the Prediction of Tastes , 1995 .

[25]  V. Reyna,et al.  Fuzzy-trace theory: An interim synthesis , 1995 .

[26]  B Fischhoff,et al.  Risk perception and communication unplugged: twenty years of process. , 1995, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[27]  J. Forgas.  Mood and judgment: the affect infusion model (AIM). , 1995, Psychological bulletin.

[28]  E. Higgins,et al.  Social psychology: Handbook of basic principles. , 1996 .

[29]  G. Clore,et al.  Feelings and phenomenal experiences , 1996 .

[30]  G. Loewenstein.  Out of control: Visceral influences on behavior , 1996 .

[31]  A. Damasio,et al.  Deciding Advantageously Before Knowing the Advantageous Strategy , 1997, Science.

[32]  Colin Camerer,et al.  The Effects of Financial Incentives in Experiments: A Review and Capital-Labor-Production Framework , 1999 .

[33]  I. Ritov,et al.  Emotion-based choice , 1999 .

[34]  Baruch Fischhoff,et al.  Fifty–fifty = 50%? , 1999 .

[35]  B Fischhoff,et al.  Why (cancer) risk communication can be hard. , 1999, Journal of the National Cancer Institute. Monographs.

[36]  P. Tetlock,et al.  Accounting for the effects of accountability. , 1999, Psychological bulletin.

[37]  J. Lerner,et al.  Beyond valence: Toward a model of emotion-specific influences on judgement and choice , 2000 .

[38]  B Fischhoff,et al.  A New Scale for Assessing Perceptions of Chance , 2000, Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making.

[39]  B. Fischhoff,et al.  Teen expectations for significant life events. , 2000, Public opinion quarterly.

[40]  G. Loewenstein,et al.  Egocentric Empathy Gaps between Owners and Buyers: Misperceptions of the Endowment Effect , 2000, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[41]  G Gigerenzer,et al.  Hindsight bias: a by-product of knowledge updating? , 2000, Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition.

[42]  J. Lerner,et al.  Fear, anger, and risk. , 2001, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[43]  J. Scott Armstrong,et al.  Principles of forecasting , 2001 .

[44]  Christopher K. Hsee,et al.  Risk as Feelings , 2001, Psychological bulletin.

[45]  Vicki G. Morwitz,et al.  Methods for Forecasting from Intentions Data , 2001 .

[46]  P. Slovic,et al.  The affect heuristic , 2007, European Journal of Operational Research.

[47]  D. Kahneman,et al.  Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment , 2002 .

[48]  N. Schwarz,et al.  The availability heuristic revisited: Ease of recall and content of recall as distinct sources of information. , 2002 .

[49]  K. Scherer,et al.  Handbook of affective sciences. , 2003 .

[50]  G. Loewenstein,et al.  The role of affect in decision making. , 2003 .

[51]  Baruch Fischhoff,et al.  Evaluating the success of terror risk communications. , 2003, Biosecurity and bioterrorism : biodefense strategy, practice, and science.

[52]  D. A. Walker,et al.  JMASM9: Converting Kendall’s Tau For Correlational Or Meta-Analytic Analyses , 2003 .

[53]  Deborah A. Small,et al.  Recent EFFECTS OF FEAR AND ANGER ON PERCEIVED RISKS OF TERRORISMA National Field Experiment , 2015 .

[54]  V. Reyna.  CURRENT DIRECTIONS IN PSYCHOLOGICAL SCIENCE How People Make Decisions That Involve Risk A Dual-Processes Approach , 2022 .

[55]  Fred B. Bryant,et al.  A Meta-Analysis of Research on Hindsight Bias , 2004 .

[56]  Jeremy R. Gray,et al.  Integration of Emotion and Cognitive Control , 2004 .

[57]  B. Fischhoff,et al.  Travel Risks in a Time of Terror: Judgments and Choices , 2004, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[58]  鄭宇庭.  行銷硏究 : Marketing research , 2009 .

[59]  Robert Beaglehole,et al.  Oxford Textbook of Public Health , 2009 .