Scenarios for biofuel demands, biomass production and land use – The case of Denmark

Abstract The land potential for producing biomass for bioenergy purposes has been highly debated in recent years. The present paper analyses the possibilities and consequences for land use and agricultural production of biofuel production in Denmark based on domestic wheat and rape under specific scenario conditions for the period 2010–2030. The potential is assessed for a situation where policy targets for renewable energy carriers in the transport sector is reached using biofuels, and where second generation ethanol increasingly substitutes first generation ethanol. Three scenarios are developed and evaluated: a baseline, an alternative scenario allowing continuous growth in the now dominant livestock branch and a biofuel scenario assuming that efforts to achieve self-sufficiency in biofuel displaces part of the domestic production of fodder. Results show that the biofuel demand could be met in 2020; but only if current rape oil production is used to satisfy local bio-diesel demand. It would also imply that the Danish bio-diesel export currently supplying a minor part of the German fuel market would seize. In 2030, however, only about 60 percent of the biofuel demand would be covered by self-sufficiency. If biofuels were to displace animal production to make up for this, a reduction of the pig production between 10 and 20 percent would result. Efficiency increases across production branches would allow the animal production to continue un-affected if about half of the rape oil produced for other purposes is utilized.