Effects of climate warming on Olive and olive fly (Bactrocera oleae (Gmelin)) in California and Italy

Climate change is expected to alter the geographic distribution and abundance of many species. Here we examine the potential effects of climate warming on olive (Olea europaea) and olive fly (Bactrocera oleae) across the ecological zones of Arizona–California (AZ–CA) and Italy. A weather-driven physiologically-based demographic model was developed from the extensive literature and used to simulate the phenology, growth and population dynamics of both species. Observed weather for several years from 151 sites in AZ–CA and 84 sites in Italy were used in the study. Three climate-warming scenarios were developed by increasing observed average daily temperature 1°, 2° and 3°C. Predictions of bloom dates, yield, total fly pupae and percent infestation were mapped using GRASS GIS. Linear multiple-regression was used to estimate the effects of weather on yield and fly abundance. Olive has a much wider temperature range of favorability than olive fly. The model predicted the present distributions of both species and gave important insights on the potential effects of climate warming on them. In AZ–CA, climate warming is expected to contract the range of olive in southern desert areas, and expand it northward and along coastal areas. Olive fly is currently limited by high temperature in the southern part of its range and by cold weather in northern areas. Climate warming is expected to increase the range of olive fly northward and in coastal areas, but decrease it in southern areas. In Italy, the range of olive is expected to increase into currently unfavorable cold areas in higher elevations in the Apennine Mountains in central Italy, and in the Po Valley in the north. Climate warming is expected to increase the range of olive fly northward throughout most of Italy.

[1]  Andrew Paul Gutierrez.  Applied Population Ecology: A Supply-Demand Approach , 1996 .

[2]  G. Maywald,et al.  Forecasting the favourableness of the Australian environment for the Russian wheat aphid, Diuraphis noxia (Homoptera: Aphididae), and its potential impact on Australian wheat yields , 1990 .

[3]  S. Chakraborty,et al.  Climate change and plant disease management. , 1999, Annual review of phytopathology.

[4]  J. Goudriaan,et al.  Simulation of Ecological Processes , 1978 .

[5]  L. Ziska,et al.  Evaluation of the growth response of six invasive species to past, present and future atmospheric carbon dioxide. , 2003, Journal of experimental botany.

[6]  JEREMY ROFFEY,et al.  Environmental and Behavioural Processes in a Desert Locust Outbreak , 1968, Nature.

[7]  E. Maurer.  Uncertainty in hydrologic impacts of climate change in the Sierra Nevada, California, under two emissions scenarios , 2007 .

[8]  D. S. Koveos,et al.  Inhibition of Ovarian Maturation in the Olive Fruit Fly, Dacus oleae (Diptera: Tephritidae), under Long Photophase and an Increase of Temperature , 1986 .

[9]  Peter A. Abrams,et al.  The Fallacies of "Ratio‐Dependent" Predation , 1994 .

[10]  A. Gutierrez,et al.  Prospective evaluation of the biological control of vine mealybug: refuge effects and climate , 2008 .

[11]  G. S. Sibbett,et al.  Olive fruit fly populations measured in Central and Southern California , 2003 .

[12]  R. Fleming,et al.  Influences of Climatic Change on Some Ecological Processes of an Insect Outbreak System in Canada's Boreal Forests and the Implications for Biodiversity , 1998 .

[13]  M. Abdel-Razik,et al.  A model of the productivity of olive trees under optional water and nutrient supply in desert conditions , 1989 .

[14]  Z. Scouras,et al.  Heat Shock Response of Bactrocera oleae (Diptera: Tephritidae): Genes and Proteins , 2000 .

[15]  Stefano Mancuso,et al.  Phenology modelling and forecasting in olive (Olea europaea L.) using artificial neural networks. , 2002 .

[16]  F. Villalobos,et al.  Modelling olive flowering date using chilling for dormancy release and thermal time , 2004 .

[17]  R. Sutherst,et al.  From CLIMEX to PESKY, a generic expert system for pest risk assessment , 1991 .

[18]  F. Woodward,et al.  Olive phenology as a sensitive indicator of future climatic warming in the Mediterranean , 2000 .

[19]  W. N. Ellis,et al.  Recent shifts in p0henology of Microlepidoptera, related to climatic change (Lepidoptera) , 1997 .

[20]  K. Watt,et al.  A Mathematical Model for the Effect of Densities of Attacked and Attacking Species on the Number Attacked , 1959, The Canadian Entomologist.

[21]  A. P. Gutierrez,et al.  MULTITROPHIC MODELS OF PREDATOR–PREY ENERGETICS: I. AGE-SPECIFIC ENERGETICS MODELS—PEA APHID ACYRTHOSIPHON PISUM (HOMOPTERA: APHIDIDAE) AS AN EXAMPLE , 1984, The Canadian Entomologist.

[22]  U. Meier,et al.  Phenological growth stages of olive trees (Olea europaea) , 2002 .

[23]  V. Drake.  The influence of weather and climate on agriculturally important insects: an Australian perspective , 1994 .

[24]  Andrew Paul Gutierrez,et al.  An Analysis of Cotton Production in California: A Model for Acala Cotton and the Effects of Defoliators on its Yields , 1975 .

[25]  A. Gutierrez,et al.  Climate change effects on poikilotherm tritrophic interactions , 2008 .

[26]  R. Venette,et al.  Implications of Larval Mortality at Low Temperatures and High Soil Moistures for Establishment of Pink Bollworm (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) in Southeastern United States Cotton , 2000 .

[27]  M. Saier,et al.  Climate Change, 2007 , 2007 .

[28]  P. Debach,et al.  Competitive displacement between ecological homologues , 1963 .

[29]  F. Giorgi,et al.  Increased aridity in the Mediterranean region under greenhouse gas forcing estimated from high resolution simulations with a regional climate model , 2008 .

[30]  John Vansickle,et al.  Attrition in Distributed Delay Models , 1977, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics.

[31]  P. A. Moore,et al.  [Dynamics of community structure in successional process of needle and broad-leaved mixed forest in Heishiding of Guangdong]. , 1974 .

[32]  A. Gutierrez,et al.  MULTITROPHIC MODELS OF PREDATOR–PREY ENERGETICS: III. A CASE STUDY IN AN ALFALFA ECOSYSTEM , 1984, The Canadian Entomologist.

[33]  Agostino Tombesi,et al.  INFLUENCE OF LEAF SHADING AND DEFOLIATION ON OIL SYNTHESIS AND GROWTH OF OLIVE FRUITS , 1994 .

[34]  A. Gutierrez,et al.  Climatic limits of pink bollworm in Arizona and California: effects of climate warming , 2006 .

[35]  Reza Ghezelbash,et al.  Evaluating biological control of yellow starthistle (Centaurea solstitialis) in California: A GIS based supply–demand demographic model , 2005 .

[36]  M. Berenbaum,et al.  Anthropogenic Changes in Tropospheric Composition Increase Susceptibility of Soybean to Insect Herbivory , 2005 .

[37]  A. Gutierrez.  Physiological Basis of Ratio-Dependent Predator-Prey Theory: The Metabolic Pool Model as a Paradigm , 1992 .

[38]  A. Gutierrez,et al.  Weather‐mediated regulation of olive scale by two parasitoids , 2001 .

[39]  J. Carey.  The Incipient Mediterranean Fruit Fly Population in California: Implications for Invasion Biology , 1996 .

[40]  David W. Williams,et al.  Climate change and the outbreak ranges of two North American bark beetles , 2002 .

[41]  Bioclimatic Studies of Three Species of Fruit Flies in Hawaii , 1954 .

[42]  B. Romano,et al.  The use of phenological data to calculate chilling units in Olea europaea L. in relation to the onset of reproduction , 2002, International journal of biometeorology.

[43]  J. Lawton,et al.  Making mistakes when predicting shifts in species range in response to global warming , 1998, Nature.

[44]  B. S. FLETCHER,et al.  Changes in the ovaries of olive flies (Dacus oleae (Gmelin)) during the summer, and their relationship to temperature, humidity and fruit availability , 1978 .

[45]  A. Macfadyen,et al.  Productivity of Terrestrial Animals: Principles and Methods , 1970 .

[46]  D. S. Koveos.  Rapid cold hardening in the olive fruit fly Bactrocera oleae under laboratory and field conditions , 2001 .

[47]  G. Meehl,et al.  More Intense, More Frequent, and Longer Lasting Heat Waves in the 21st Century , 2004, Science.

[48]  S. Schneider,et al.  Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California. , 2004, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[49]  H. Genç,et al.  Survival and development of Bactrocera oleae Gmelin (Diptera:Tephritidae) immature stages at four temperatures in the laboratory , 2008 .

[50]  E. T. Kapatos,et al.  The Phenology of the Olive Fly, Dacus oleae (Gmel.) (Diptera, Tephritidae), in Corfu , 2009 .

[51]  F. Bigler,et al.  Wichtigste Mortalitätsfaktoren während der präpupalen Entwicklung der Olivenfliege, Dacus oleae Gmel. (Dipt., Tephritidae) auf Oleastern und kultivierten Oliven in Westkreta, Griechenland , 2009 .

[52]  M. E. Tzanakakis,et al.  Effect of the presence of olive fruit on ovarian maturation in the olive fruit fly, Dacus oleae, under laboratory conditions , 1990 .

[53]  H. G. Andrewartha,et al.  The distribution and abundance of animals. , 1954 .

[54]  F. Bigler.  Die postlarvale Mortalität der Olivenfliege, Dacus oleae Gmel. (Dipt., Tephritidae), in Oleastergebieten von Westkreta1 , 2009 .

[55]  Lewis H. Ziska,et al.  Future atmospheric carbon dioxide may increase tolerance to glyphosate , 1999, Weed Science.

[56]  L. Sebastiani,et al.  Physiological and Biochemical Remarks on Environmental Stress in Olive (Olea europaea L.) , 2002 .

[57]  E. T. Kapatos,et al.  Mortality factors and life‐budgets for immature stages of the olive fly, Dacus oleae (Gmel.) (Diptera, Tephritidae), in Corfu , 1986 .