Decision Support Tool Prototype for the Enlistment Incentive Review Board: Phase 2

Abstract : The Army offers enlistment incentives--cash bonuses, educational support, and educational loan repayment--to encourage applicants to choose military occupational specialties (MOS) with the greatest need at longer terms of service (TOS). Within the Army, the Enlistment Incentive Review Board (EIRB) determines incentive types, levels, amounts, and qualification criteria as part of its quarterly review process. We had previously developed a job choice model (JCM) to predict applicants' MOS and TOS choices as a function of enlistment incentives. We then implemented the JCM within a proof-of-concept decision support tool (DST). The DST demonstrated the utility of the approach, but had several limitations, which became the focus of the current effort. With the support of the Army Research Institute, we sought to expand the functionality of the DST to produce a viable tool for allocating incentives to meet enlistment goals. To accomplish this goal, we revised the JCM using an expanded choice set, validating it with three different samples. We developed additional models to forecast the effect of economic conditions and recruiting funding on the quality of applicants and to estimate the total cost of the incentives. We then implemented the revised JCM and additional models in a prototype DST.