A partial least squares - Path modeling analysis for the understanding of biodiversity loss in rural and urban watersheds in Portugal.

The main purpose of this study was to use Partial Least Squares - Path Modeling (PLS-PM) to quantify the contributions of natural and human-induced threats to biodiversity loss in rural and urban watersheds. The study area comprised the Sabor and Ave river basins, located in northern Portugal. The Sabor is rural and sparsely populated while the Ave is urbanized, industrialized and densely populated. Within PLS-PM, threats are called exogenous latent variables while the ultimate environmental consequence (biodiversity loss) is termed endogenous latent variable. Latent variables are concepts represented by numerical parameters called formative variables. The selected latent variables were given the names "pressures", "contamination" and "ecological integrity". The most important "pressures" were the wildfire risk, the percentage of urban area in sub-catchments, the diffuse emissions of livestock nitrogen (N) and agriculture/forest phosphorus (P), and the point source emissions of urban N, P and biochemical oxygen demand, as well as of industrial N. The latent variable called "contamination" was primarily represented by stream water concentrations of phosphate, suspended solids and dissolved oxygen. And finally, the "ecological integrity" was represented by the he North Invertebrate Portuguese Index. The results unequivocally showed that point source emissions in the Sabor (except industrial N) and stream water contamination in the Ave determine biodiversity loss. These contrasting influences suggest that Ave basin has evolved from a catchment where man once produced localized negative effects on stream ecological integrity (a condition still observed in the Sabor basin) to a catchment where the dense human occupation has covered the entire area with urban contaminant sources, somewhat generalizing the local effects. The attribution of local effects to biodiversity loss in the rural catchment and of regional effects in the urban catchment is confirmed by the results of a study covering the entire planet.

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