Water Management Applications of Climate-Based Hydrologic Forecasts: Case Study of the Truckee-Carson River Basin

Water managers in the western United States and throughout the world are facing the increasing challenge of supplying a variety of water demands under the growing stresses of climate variability and of population and economic growth. Accurate streamflow forecasts are key to the water resources planning and decision-making process. There is growing evidence that variability in western streamflow is modulated by large-scale ocean-atmospheric features. Traditional forecasting techniques, however, do not systematically utilize large-scale climate information. In this study we present a framework for incorporating climate information into water resources decision-making and demonstrate the method on the semiarid Truckee-Carson Basin in Nevada where environmental, agricultural, and municipal demands compete for a limited supply of water. In this basin, water managers must plan carefully to meet the demands of timing and required flowrates. The framework presented in this paper consists of a streamflow forecast ...